Trends: Top 3 relied-on Rush point producers
Earlier this week, Saskatchewan Rush General Manager, Derek Keenan, told SaskRush.com what he thought of the team’s 1-3 start to the 2021/22 National Lacrosse League regular season.
“No excuses. We clearly have not been good enough on the offensive end,” Keenan said in the team-published post. “There’s a lot of reasons why, but one of them is not talent. It’s about chemistry, hard work prior to the game, and going into the game with the same attitude the defensive players have. The ‘D’ guys know they can’t take one shift off or the ball is in our net. The ‘O’ guys have taken a lot of shifts off. It’s the finer points. Never mind the execution, they have not competed hard enough.
“Our top-three guys have not performed.”
Keenan confirmed that the team’s “top-three guys” are: Mark Matthews, Robert Church and Ryan Keenan.
As mentioned in this week’s NLL Power Rankings, Saskatchewan’s 1-3 start is the team’s worst since 2013 (also 1-3) and the five goals they finished with against Albany last week (10-5L) are the fewest the Rush have registered in a regular season game since a 12-5 result against Boston in 2010.
“There definitely isn’t any panic in our locker room,” Church mentioned in a follow-up post just a day later. “We are confident in the group we have. This group has been through a lot together, so we think we got the pieces to turn this around.”
The Lax Mag took a deeper data dive into the Rush’s “top-three guys”, rewinding back to Ryan Keenan’s rookie season in 2017 and comparing the trio’s per-game stats against this year’s early season slump. TLM also looked at how reliant the Rush are on their top-three point producers versus the rest of the NLL this year.
Goals Per Game
Firstly, prior to this season, Ben McIntosh would have most definitely taken one of those top-three spots. During six seasons with the franchise, McIntosh’s goal production finished in the following spots on the Rush roster (2015-2020): 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st (tied) and 1st. McIntosh is now of course playing in a Philadelphia Wings offense that looks more Rush-like (depth, distribution and diversity) than this year’s Rush.
Jeff Shattler, who was placed in protocol just prior to the teams’s eventual loss to the Albany FireWolves, could easily be argued into that Top 3 too. In fact, his goal production (in one less game than the others) this year sits him third (5) behind Church (8) and Matthews (6).
With just 2 goals so far this year, Keenan’s goals-per-game have plummeted against the career-best average he hit just a season ago.
Matthews, who already saw a slowdown in goal scoring last year, has seen a very slight spike in 2022. Based on the below breakdowns, it’s likely why Coach Keenan is expecting significantly more from his leading man.
Assists Per Game
Matthews’s assists-per-game numbers have undoubtedly dipped. Part of that is surely due to Rush shooters struggling so far this season (Rush team scoring ranks last in the West and 12th out of 14 across the league) and the fact that the unreal 84 helpers he hit in 2018 aren’t an easy total to match either. But, as the obvious #1 in that Top 3, Keenan clearly expects more than what he’s seen this year.
Church’s assists average have steadily slid since 2018, while Keenan is presently averaging more than any other previous season. Matthews & Keenan currently lead the team with 12 assists apiece.
Shots Per Game
With McIntosh gone, Keenan is shooting more than ever, which makes his 2 goals so far this season such a concern for the Rush GM.
With the Rush owning a lot of offensive depth over recent NLL regular seasons, Matthews has regularly ripped less, including this year. Right now, Church, Keenan, Shattler and Dan Lintner are all shooting more than Matthews.
“We’re seeing a lot of hesitation rather than just going out and playing,” Keenan had also commented earlier this week.
Shooting Percentage
Last year, Matthews’ .118 shooting percentage during the pandemic-shortened season was by far the lowest of his brilliant career. Right now, he leads Saskatchewan forwards in shooting percentage (.194), and while shooting more will likely see this stat sink, again, Coach Keenan’s plea for less hesitation applies here too.
Although Keenan’s 2 goals on 39 shots isn’t ideal (.051), just as worrisome is off-season add Josh Currier’s & highly anticipated rookie Marshall Powless’ combined 1 goal on 37 tries (.026 SH%).
Top 3 % Team Scoring
How much do the Rush rely on their Top 3? Well, although the trio sits 1-2-3 when it comes to overall point production so far this year, when it comes to who is actually scoring, Shattler is third (5) and Keenan is tied for sixth.
When you examine the rest of the league’s Top 3 scorers, even though it’s still early, a few things jump at you.
Two teams with arguably the most offensive depth, the Buffalo Bandits & Philadelphia Wings, rely on their Top 3 goal getters the least, getting a good amount of goals from their secondary scoring options too.
Most feel the Halifax Thunderbirds should be in that most-depth convo too, but with significant injuries and just two games completed due to breaks & postponements, their 65% reliance on their Top 3 scorers is very deceiving at this point.
Also deceiving, right now at least, is the San Diego Seals’ reliance on their Top 3. Most of that is due to the absurd pace that Dane Dobbie is finishing, again. With that said, the Seals have six players that have scored five times or more this year (Dobbie, Wes Berg, Austin Staats, Casey Jackson, Tre Leclaire and Mac O’Keefe). Only the Wings have done the same (McIntosh, Matt Rambo, Kevin Crowley, Corey Small, Brett Hickey and Blaze Riorden).
As was expected, the Georgia Swarm are relying heavily on their vets, especially Lyle Thompson up top (recently ranked #3 in our Week 6 NLL Player Rankings). Although their record isn’t where they’d want it, the Swarm are one of only four teams to average 12 goals or more in games this year. Their Top 3 currently account for 61% of their overall goal production.