2022 NLL Playoffs: San Diego Seals vs. Colorado Mammoth series preview
The West’s second seeded Calgary Roughnecks are out after being cut down by the Colorado Mammoth last weekend. As are the wild-card Philadelphia Wings, who the San Diego Seals slipped by thanks to a colossally clutch caused turnover by the Cup-craving Brodie Merrill.
Today, The Lax Mag looks at which team has the advantage in the critical criteria that will help confirm who wins the National Lacrosse League’s Western Conference in 2022: the San Diego Seals or Colorado Mammoth?
Game 1: Colorado at San Diego
Friday, May 13, 2022, 10pm ET
Game 2: San Diego at Colorado
Saturday, May 21, 2022, 930pm ET
Game 3: Colorado at San Diego (if necessary)
May 27-29 (date & time TBA)
Dillon Ward, Colorado Mammoth
Goaltending
Dillon Ward should be a GOTY finalist. Frank Scigliano might be too. Scigliano was in the spotlight in the Seals first-round W (44 saves, only 9 goals against), but Ward did more than enough to move the Mammoth to the Division Finals too (35 saves). Advantage: Colorado Mammoth
Defense
The Seals’ underrated defensive depth allowed fewer shots/game than the Mammoth, who often relied on Ward to keep them competitive throughout the season (only Matt Vinc was forced to make more stops than Ward this winter). The addition of Anthony Joaquim at the trade deadline deepened Colorado’s defensive depth behind leaders like Robert Hope & John Lintz, but the Seals mix of vets (Cam Holding & Merrill in particular) and youth (Eli Gobrecht has matured into a pestering defensive force) has been agitating and effective. Advantage: San Diego Seals
Casey Jackson, San Diego Seals (Photo: Mike McGinnis)
Offense
The Mammoth’s top trio - Ryan Lee, Eli McLaughlin and Connor Robinson - were as good as any other this year (some may say the best). Ditto with Wes Berg, Austin Staats and Dane Dobbie, but the Seals get slightly better secondary-scoring support. A healthy Casey Jackson, who had 4 goals vs. Colorado a month ago, extends their offensive depth, a lot. Advantage: San Diego Seals, the only team in the West to score 200+ during the regular season this year
Update (May 13, 2022, 3:25pm ET):
Transition
San Diego didn’t have a true transitional-scoring threat until they successfully moved rookie Tre Leclaire to the other end of the floor, although Patrick Shoemay really pitched in last weekend (2 goals). Plus, in a bit of a surprise move, yesterday San Diego signed 2021 first-round pick Mike McCannell, who “…will join the team immediately.” It’s rare in any pro sport for a rookie to debut in the playoffs, but McCannell (Stony Brook/Orangeville/Mimico) could add immediate defensive & transitional impact starting as early as tonight surely. Colorado is led by 2x TPOTY Joey Cupido, Jordan Gilles (who scored twice vs. Calgary in the first round), and consistently had others contribute on the press all season. Advantage: Colorado Mammoth
Jodan Gilles, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: J. Tobias)
Power Play
The Mammoth’s man-up was surprisingly the third worst statistically during the regular season (34.4%, only Rochester and Halifax were lower). The Seals got solid PP production throughout the year (league-leading 39PPG), plus had held the Mammoth to a measly 2PPG in their 2022 meetings (0 in their last match), scoring 5 of their own. Advantage: San Diego Seals
Penalty Kill
Just about two percentage points separated their penalty-kill efficiency (COL: 57.3%, SDS: 55.44%), plus the two teams sat #1 & #2 in SGF during the regular season. Not much to pick from, but… Advantage: San Diego Seals, who had three more shorties this season (SDS: 12, COL: 9), led by former Mammoth forward Jeremy Noble’s 4 SHP (also topped the team with 54 assists)
Jeremy Noble, San Diego Seals (Photo: Mike McGinnis)
Faceoffs
During the regular season, the Seals went about 50% against the Mammoth’s Alex Woodall, but were most definitely bettered by Tim Edwards earlier in the year (before his stretch on the IR). Brandon Clelland slightly edged out Edwards twice in 2020, but will Tyson Bomberry start for the Seals like he did last week vs. the Wings? Do face-off wins even matter? If they do… Advantage: Colorado Mammoth
Coaching
Pat Coyle and Pat Merrill won an NLL Cup together while playing for the Toronto Rock in 2003, plus a Mann Cup before that. After a couple disappointing campaigns (13-18 during full 2019 and partial 2020 season), Coyle rerouted Colorado to an improved 2022. Merrill kept the Seals believing during a season filled with adversity (remember that win in Saskatoon with a roster filled with rookies?) and disappointment (most of their second half). Advantage: Colorado Mammoth
Pat Coyle, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Jack Dempsey)
Intangibles
Well, the Seals will get two home dates (if necessary) by being the higher seed, but going just 5-4 at Pechanga Arena doesn’t give them a decisive advantage here. With that said, the Mammoth lost in San Diego back in March, plus had the league’s second worst road record during the regular season (3-6). Does a home floor advantage matter here? Seems so.
Plus, there may be no bigger storyline in this year’s playoffs than 40-year-old Brodie Merrill still chasing his first-ever NLL Cup. Will that further motivate the Seals? It did with the Avalanche and Ray Bourque, who at 40 won his first Stanley Cup with the Colorado club in 2001. From NHL.com:
The day after the Avalanche were put on the brink of elimination with a 4-1 loss at home in Game 5, Bourque inspired his teammates with an emotional message during a team meeting.
"The guys were really down on themselves. You could hear a pin drop in the dressing room," said Bob Hartley, the Avalanche coach at the time. "Ray, with a tear in his eye, spoke briefly, basically to tell the guys he had one or two games left to play before retiring and all he wanted was to win the Cup. I really had nothing to add. The guys were pumped after that."
Advantage: San Diego Seals
Dane Dobbie, San Diego Seals (Photo: Mike McGinnis)
Experience
There isn’t a whole lot of NLL Cup-winning experience on either side past their head coaches and a couple others. It’s is a big reason why Dane Dobbie was signed, Merrill previously saying, “…to put it simply, he's a winner. He's a true competitor to his core and we've been able to see that throughout his hall of fame-caliber career so far.” The Seals vet is a two-time Cup winner in Calgary, the post-season MVP in 2019 too. Advantage: San Diego Seals
Recent Results
In our Week 19 Power Rankings, we reviewed how critical success over a team’s final month of the regular season is when crowning the eventual Cup winner. The Mammoth went 3-2 over their last month. The Seals went 1-5 during April, which included an 11-10 loss to their upcoming opponent. Advantage: Colorado Mammoth
Brodie Merrill, San Diego Seals (Photo: Mike MicGinnis)
Overall Advantage
San Diego Seals (6): defense, offense, power play, penalty kill, intangibles and experience
Colorado Mammoth (5): goaltending, transition, faceoffs, coaching and recent results
Prediction
The San Diego Seals take the series in a squeaker, 2-1.