2022 NLL Playoffs: Buffalo Bandits vs. Toronto Rock series preview

Unlike the Western Conference, the East went the way most felt it would, the higher seeded Buffalo Bandits & Toronto Rock dispatching of the Albany FireWolves & Halifax Thunderbirds, respectively. The two beasts of the East also finished #1 & #2 in our final Power Rankings post, however, they were flipped in the final standings.

Like we did for the West ahead of last night’s Game 1 between the San Diego Seals and Colorado Mammoth, today we take a look at the critical criteria that will help determine who takes the East in 2022.

Game 1: Toronto at Buffalo
Sunday, May 15, 2022, 6pm ET

Game 2: Buffalo at Toronto
Saturday, May 21, 2022, 7pm ET

Game 3: Toronto at Buffalo (if necessary)
Saturday, May 28, 730pm ET

Matt Vinc, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)

Goaltending

Nick Rose had arguably his greatest regular season to date, plus his late-game heroics in the first round helped fuel the Rock’s eventual victory. Matt Vinc has been the backbone of Buffalo’s incredible 14-4 season, and like Rose, was exceptionally good last week too. You could easily argue both backstops have been their team’s MVP this year. Advantage: Buffalo Bandits, mostly because of Vinc’s past post-season prosperity and persistent HOF-worthy pace

Defense

In addition to leading the league in goals against/game by a lofty margin (#1 TOR: 9.22, #2 SDS: 10.17, #3 BUF: 10.28), the Rock also held Buffalo’s usually pretty potent offense to just 10 and 7 goals (only times Bandits didn’t get more than 10 all year) in their last two meetings (both Toronto wins). Led by Brad Kri, Latrell Harris and former Bandit Mitch de Snoo, the Rock have the most defensively dynamic unit in the league. Steve Priolo, Nick Weiss, Bryce Sweeting and the rest of their crushing crew are also suffocatingly good, but… Advantage: Toronto Rock

Latrell Harris, Toronto Rock (Photo: Ryan McCullough)

Offense

As dominant as the Rock’s defense was, Buffalo experienced the same success up front with their forwards. All playing a full 18 games, Buffalo got 30-goal seasons from their first five: Dhane Smith (41), Josh Byrne (37), Connor Fields (32), Chase Fraser (32) and clutch rookie Tehoka Nanticoke (32). The Rock’s Tom Schreiber led the league in goals (47, tied with Joe Resetarits and Lyle Thompson) and pulled it off in just 16 games. Like Schreiber, many of the Rock’s main shooters missed stretches due to COVID or other injury-related casualties (Dan Craig was the only full-time forward to play 18). Yes, the Rock offense has healed and heated up down the stretch, but… Advantage: Buffalo Bandits

Transition

Even if you took all of Challen Rogers’ 21 goals out of the equation (likely half came from minutes filled at forward), the Rock’s transition and defensive players scored 35 times to the Bandits’ still impressive 28 (16 of those coming from Ian MacKay & Matt Spanger though). Both teams have top talent that back pedals effectively too: Buffalo’s Smith & Byrne with 10CT each, the Rock countering with Craig’s 10 and of course the very versatile Rogers one of the best at defending the opposition’s transition. Advantage: Toronto Rock

Challen Rogers, Toronto Rock (Photo: Ryan McCullough)

Power Play

Even though the Rock’s power-play efficiency was vastly improved from a season ago (2020: 31.4% vs. 2022: 42.5%), Schreiber’s 11PPG providing a big boost there, the Bandits’ man-up was easily one of the best all season (52.8%, 2nd overall). Advantage: Buffalo Bandits

Penalty Kill

Based on PK percentages, it doesn’t get much closer, Buffalo’s 65.6% first overall and Toronto’s 62.5% second best in the big leagues. The 24PPG goals the Rock allowed were easily the fewest in the league, and nine less than the Bandits. Led largely by Byrne (4) and Fraser (3), the Bandits were one of this year’s top short-handed scoring sides, but get this, the Rock only allowed 3SHG all year. Who had the better penalty-kill percentage in their three games against one another earlier this season? Advantage: Buffalo Bandits, who actually had an even stronger PK% vs. Toronto (70.0%), who were also high (64.3%)

Chase Fraser, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)

Faceoffs

Although they split their first two games of 2022 (Toronto handing Buffalo their first L in the second match of their regular-season series), the Rock’s TD Ierlan beat up the Bandits pretty badly at the dot (combined 43/48). Days after that defeat, Buffalo signed Max Adler, who’s taken a majority of their draws since, including going pretty much even with Ierlan the next time the teams met. Still though… Advantage: Toronto Rock

Coaching

He’s led the squad since 2017 and this year passed Les Bartley for most games coached with the historic franchise, the Rock’s Matt Sawyer a stronger candidate for this year’s COTY (likely between Sawyer, Tracey Kelusky, Curt Malawsky and maybe even Buffalo’s John Tavares). Between high-COVID counts, key injuries and playing in an empty arena, Sawyer kept the team focussed, motivated and hungry, plus has the Rock rolling at the absolute perfect time of the year. Whatever Sawyer said at the half when these two teams last met, it seems to have worked pretty well. Tavares is definitely the perfect coach to lead a star-studded squad like the Bandits, but… Advantage: Toronto Rock

Dhane Smith, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)

Intangibles

Although the Rock figured out a way to silence the crowd in their last clash, Banditland is heavy hostile territory for any opponent, and Buffalo gets as many as two there this series. There is no real underdog here, so the overused everyone-is-doubting-us motivation isn’t likely to work for either side. Both have long-serving vets that have yet to win it all (more on them here), so again, not more of a motivator either way. Advantage: Buffalo Bandits because, well, it’s Banditland

Experience

Just like in the West, there aren’t a whole lot of Cup-winners left in the East either. Vinc won three times with Rochester, while teammate Ethan O’Connor was with the Georgia Swarm when they sewed it up in 2017. The Rock’s Dan Dawson won twice with Vinc, and again with Saskatchewan, brought in largely for his next-level leadership. Although sidelined for much of the season, Jason Noble was with the Swarm in 2017 too, playing a prominent role during that run. Many forget that Rob Hellyer was a rookie with the Rock in 2011, playing in all of Toronto’s post-season games during their Cup-winning campaign, which included a classic against the Bandits. Advantage: We tried to avoid ties in these previews, but there is not nearly enough evidence to allow for an advantage either way

Dan Dawson, Toronto Rock (Photo: Ryan McCullough)

Recent Results

As we mentioned in the West Preview and an earlier edition of the Power Rankings, one thing most eventual Cup winners have in common is a strong last month of their regular season (aka: perfectly peaking for the playoffs). So how’d these two do in April? Buffalo went 1-3, which included that previously mentioned loss to the Rock. Toronto 5-0. Advantage: Toronto Rock

Overall Advantage

Buffalo Bandits (5): goaltending, offense, power play, penalty kill and intangibles

Toronto Rock (5): defense, transition, faceoffs, coaching and recent results

Prediction

As close as the West appears to be, the East is even tighter, as concluded in our equal criteria count. Of everything listed above, the one area that seems to determine each season’s champion more frequently than anything else is how eventual Cup winners do towards the end of the season and into the playoffs. So, Rock 2-1, in what has all the makings of becoming a modern-era classic.