Why parity in the National Lacrosse League isn’t as prevalent as you think
Game 2 of the 2022 NLL Finals, Ball Arena (Photo: Isaiah Vazquez)
Earlier this week, we asked, “With more teams, more games and more players, is parity in the NLL finally fading?”
Due to a recent swell in expansion, today’s edition of the National Lacrosse League is the biggest it’s been in 36 seasons, the Las Vegas Desert Dogs bringing the league’s record-setting count to 15 franchises when they debuted late last year.
For the past decade - probably longer - you’ll often hear those within the league emphasizing just how much parity (“the state or condition of being equal”) the NLL has during what has essentially been professional lacrosse’s modern era.
Are they right?
Author Michael Mauboussin probably thinks the league’s perceived parity is due to a number of other determining factors. In his book, The Success Equation, Mauboussin, “…places sports on the skill-luck continuum by using a statistical technique earlier demonstrated by sports data analysts. He found that season standings for the NBA reflect skill levels more so than the seasons of other major team sports, with NHL hockey being the sport closest to the luck side of the continuum.” (Vox, 2017)
For those no familiar with Mauboussin’s stats-based take, watch the Vox-produced video below.
Many of those areas Mauboussin reviews would likely nix the idea that the NLL is populated by parity.
Why?
Well, the NLL, like say the National Football League (16-game season), has their teams playing far fewer games than the lengthy Major League Baseball season (162 games). The sample size for the NLL (18-game season) & NFL is very small, meaning upsets standout & skew a team’s standing far more than if they played double or triple the number of games they do now.
“The small sample size pushes football to the luck side of the (Mauboussin’s) continuum, since it’s harder for skill to emerge from the noise with so few trials,” said Vox’s Joss Fong. The same would obviously hold true for the NLL.
Mauboussin’s theory also takes into account in-game action and how many opportunities players have to score goals, points, runs or otherwise. The National Hockey League, which ranks the heaviest on the luck-over-skill side of the author’s scale, has larger rosters (23 players) with fewer opportunities to score versus a pro league like the National Basketball Association, who runs smaller game-day lineups (15) and also sees their skill-heavy players put in larger minutes per game with more scoring chances. Although the NLL no longer tracks minutes played for players, their rosters and playing time are much more similar to hockey than basketball.
Michael Mauboussin’s skill-luck continuum (Graphic: Vox)
That doesn’t mean that NLL players lack skill, far from it. As Fong points out, “The continuum doesn’t tell us how skilled the players are, but more how well the sport measures their skills.”
There is a Success Equation that Mauboussin utilizes to determine if a sport is based more on luck or skill, but the math is beyond what The Lax Mag’s wrist-watch calculators could handle. Much of what is mentioned in the Vox article, however, would seemingly push the NLL much further to the luck side of the spectrum when it comes to determining the outcome of a match.
So, is the NLL truly powered by parity as we’re so often told, or does the size of the league’s schedule & rosters, plus in-game minutes played & scoring opportunities (and by whom), simply mean that luck impacts the league far more than an even amount of skill across all its teams? Mauboussin’s theory would suggest the latter.
The NLL has also seen their style of game play (the constant transition of the 90s vs. the O/D style of the 00s to today), expansion & contraction, as well as advancements in equipment impact their results.
As mentioned in this week’s earlier piece on high-scoring games & score-board blowouts, the league’s 2002 season was a unique one. The NLL expanded from nine to 13 teams and also increased the width of their goals from 4’6” to 4’9”. Scoring was up that year (28 goals per game), but slowly sank as teams exited the league. It was also around the late 90s & early 00s that goalie equipment very clearly grew (first illegally & then later by manufacturers), kind of countering the league’s hope for increased scoring when they pushed their posts a bit wider.
NLL Scoring Trends: 1987-Today
Note: 2020 season includes average amount of games played during pandemic-cancelled season.
Since that 2002 season, scoring in the NLL has mostly been on the decline (although up so far this season, some feel due to expansion). The 28 total goals per game teams scored that year, and often did throughout the 90s, has never been achieved again since.
Although we still have a lot of lacrosse left to go, the goal gap in final results this year (5) resembles more of what we saw in the 90s versus most modern-era seasons.
And finally, the playoffs.
The NLL, for many years, allowed a much higher percentage of teams into their playoffs than any other major pro sport in North America. During their most generous season (2019), nearly three-quarters of their teams made it past the regular season.
With recent increased expansion, that almost-everyone-in entry has sunk to a much more relatable & reasonable level. Here are the updated percentages, which includes a hilariously high number for the Premier Lacrosse League, almost making their regular season meaningless, no?
PLL: 7/8 (88%)
CFL: 6/9 (67%)
NLL: 8/15 (53%)
NBA: 16/30 (53%)
NHL: 16/32 (50%)
MLS: 14/29 (48%)
NFL: 14/32 (44%)
MLB: 12/30 (40%)
With the NLL unable to host seven-game series like the NHL, NBA or MLB due to arena availability during their winter and early-spring schedule (and other less obvious reasons), upsets again help support the parity angle. The league’s always small post-season sample size, however, would suggest otherwise. Over three rounds - Wild Card, Conference Finals and NLL Finals - the maximum amount of post-season games a team can play is seven, like the Colorado Mammoth did last year.
In fact, most European pro sports leagues, especially for sports like soccer & rugby, will crown their regular season winner as that year’s true champion. Yes, it’s a very un-American approach, but it does reward skill & consistency rather than luck or a late surge.
2022 NLL Cup, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Jack Dempsey)
While a seven-game series is something most lacrosse fans desire, based on arena availability alone during the NLL’s season of play, the present-day playoff structure might be as good as it gets. Based on the excitement the NLL’s post-season usually offers, does it really matter? Some of the league’s most thrilling finals were one-and-dones, while last year’s best-of-three final between Buffalo & Colorado couldn’t have offered much more. If by some miracle the league was able to run each round as a best-of-seven series, teams could be playing more games in the playoffs than they did during the entire regular season, which would be, well, weird, right?
Does parity, real or perceived, make the NLL more appealing?
As Fong asks in her Vox feature, “What do we want our sports to do? Do we want to measure skill as precisely as possible or do we just want to feel alive?”
Mauboussin answers, “We’re there to enjoy the journey. The highs & lows, and having those highs & lows is kind of what makes it engaging for a fan. I think that’s part of the whole human condition that makes it really fun for us to watch.”