NLL Power Rankings: Week 16
Every week during the 2021/22 National Lacrosse League season, The Lax Mag will publish updated NLL Power Rankings reflecting the previous week’s performances, as well as a team’s overall regular season rep, status and success rate.
This week, in addition to our updated order of NLL teams from top to bottom, we’re also examining the still-to-be-played schedule for all 14 teams and what remaining record they’ll likely need in those games to get into the playoffs.
The last possible post-season spot is the league’s new wild-card entry, which will pit the fifth-place team in the East against the fourth-place team in the West. Here is exactly what the league stated in their division realignment and playoff format announcement last summer:
The new alignment means a revised playoff format, with the top four teams in the East and top three in the West advancing to the playoffs. The eighth playoff slot will go to the team with the better record between the fifth place in the East and fourth place in the West, per NLL tiebreaker rules. The first round will be single elimination, while the second round and Finals will each be best-of-three series.
Although impossible to know for sure, it’s looking increasingly likely that a team will need at least eight wins to lock up that wild-card spot. It’s also becoming increasingly more likely that an East Division team will own that final playoff pass.
While a lot can still happen, especially in the parity-positive play of the NLL, the East’s fourth position is currently owned by seven-win Georgia, while Albany sits at six wins with four to go. Third and fourth in the West is presently populated by Panther City and Vancouver, both at five Ws.
A seven-win season in the West might be good enough for third in the division, but a result or two off from capturing the wild card. At least that’s what it’s looking like right now.
Here’s who teams still have left and what their present playoff picture looks like with a bit more than a moth to go.
Buffalo Bandits 10-1 (1)
Remaining games (7): vs. Halifax (Mar. 26), at Halifax (Mar. 27), at Philadelphia (Mar. 31), at Colorado (Apr. 2), vs. New York (Apr. 9), at Georgia (Apr. 16) and vs. Toronto (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: Even though they don’t have an X (or whatever character ends up getting used to confirm clinches in the standings), they’re easily in.
San Diego Seals 9-2 (2)
Remaining games (7): at Vancouver (Mar. 25), at Toronto (Apr. 2), vs. Philadelphia (Apr. 8), at Colorado (Apr. 9), vs. Panther City (Apr. 15), at Saskatchewan (Apr. 23) and at Vancouver (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: They’re already past the eight-win mark, and with five of their final seven against sides with a sub .500 record, the #1 seed in the West should read Seals on April 30th or earlier.
Toronto Rock 8-4 (3)
Remaining games (6): vs. Georgia (Mar. 26), at Georgia (Apr. 1), vs. San Diego (Apr. 2), at Rochester (Apr. 9), vs. Halifax (Apr. 16) and at Buffalo (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: They’ve been playing really well of late and already have eight, but damn is the Rock’s final stretch ever loaded: play both division leaders, their next two are against one of the hottest teams today, plus another against a hungry Halifax side that’s already beaten them twice in 2022. They’d need a complete collapse to miss the playoffs though, and fully fit, that’s unlikely to happen.
Halifax Thunderbirds 8-3 (4)
Remaining games (7): at Buffalo (Mar. 26), vs. Buffalo (Mar. 27), vs. Rochester (Apr. 1), at Calgary (Apr. 8), at Toronto (Apr. 16), at New York (Apr. 23) and at Rochester (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: Playoffs are pretty much locked in, but with two against Buffalo this weekend, can the Thunderbirds topple the mighty Bandits for that #1 seed too? It’s the most highly anticipated home-and-home of 2022, by far.
Georgia Swarm 7-6 (7)
Remaining games (5): at Toronto (Mar. 26), vs. Toronto (Apr. 1), vs. Buffalo (Apr. 16), at Panther City (Apr. 23) and vs. Philadelphia (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: They’re in a good spot at seven wins, but with only five games to go and a difficult end to their season, nothing is guaranteed. With that said, there are few hotter than the Swarm right now, plus they’ve played well at home (4-2). Three of their final five will be at Gas South. The last time the Swarm missed the playoffs the franchise was in Minnesota (2015), and they’ve never not gone to the post-season since Ed Comeau took over head-coaching duties (2016).
Albany FireWolves 6-8 (5)
Remaining games (4): at New York (Mar. 26), at Vancouver (Apr. 2), vs. Philadelphia (Apr. 16) and vs. New York (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: The bad news… their record isn’t great and they’ve only got four games left to fix it. The good news… their last games are against teams under .500, plus even at 6-8, they’re presently better positioned than the West’s wild-card-clinching contenders. Fourth in the East seems less likely, but isn’t impossible based on their remaining regular-season matches.
Colorado Mammoth 7-5 (6)
Remaining games (6): at Panther City (Mar. 26), vs. Buffalo (Apr. 2), vs. New York (Apr. 4), vs. San Diego (Apr. 9), at Saskatchewan (Apr. 16) and at Calgary (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: It would be somewhat shocking not to see Colorado clinch second in the West based on how they’ve looked at their best, plus their record in comparison to the rest of the division.
Panther City Lacrosse Club 5-8 (8)
Remaining games (5): vs. Colorado (Mar. 26), at Calgary (Apr. 9), at San Diego (Apr. 15), vs. Georgia (Apr. 23) and vs. Saskatchewan (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: A month ago, we thought they’d be happy with a better-than-average expansion effort. Clearly they weren’t satisfied with that assessment. Can Panther City go 3-2 or better over their final five and punch their post-season ticket in Year 1? Based on the past month, you’d be crazy to doubt they can’t.
Philadelphia Wings 5-7 (10)
Remaining games (6): at Rochester (Mar. 26), vs. Buffalo (Mar. 31), at New York (Apr. 2), at San Diego (Apr. 8), at Albany (Apr. 16) and at Georgia (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: With four straight losses and an offense whose mojo went MIA over that same sad stretch, the Wings have gone from post-season probablies to a team needing a lot to go right in order to crash this year’s playoffs. .500 ball over their last six, which is no cake walk, could get them in. Philly’s last win was on January 29th.
Vancouver Warriors 5-7 (9)
Remaining games (6): vs. San Diego (Mar. 25), at Calgary (Apr. 1), vs. Albany (Apr. 2), at Saskatchewan (Apr 9), vs. Calgary (Apr. 16) and vs. San Diego (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: Vancouver’s recent four-game slide (last week’s L likely the hardest of all to swallow) has allowed the likes of Panther City and Calgary to creep closer to the West’s third spot, which the Warriors previously had a good grip of. There’s also a decent chance that the third-place team in the West will have a lesser record than the East’s eventual wild-card clincher closes with. Getting Mitch Jones back for their last three or four would be a massive lift as the try and keep their loss column less cluttered.
New York Riptide 3-8 (11)
Remaining games (7): vs. Albany (Mar. 26), vs. Philadelphia (Apr. 2), at Colorado (Apr. 4), at Buffalo (Apr. 9), vs. Rochester (Apr. 16), vs. Halifax (Apr. 23) and at Albany (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: Let’s say it ends up being eight wins that gets you in this year, New York would need to go 5-2 the rest of the way. Impossible? Nope. Unlikely based on their already eleven games played. Of course.
Calgary Roughnecks 4-7 (14)
Remaining games (7): at Saskatchewan (Mar. 26), vs. Vancouver (Apr. 1), vs. Halifax (Apr. 8), vs. Panther City (Apr. 9), at Vancouver (Apr. 16), at Rochester (Apr. 22) and vs. Colorado (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: At 4-7, Calgary is still easily in contention for the drooping division’s third seed. Seven Ws likely won’t be enough for the wild card, but could clinch #3 out West. Kinda crazy.
Saskatchewan Rush 4-9 (13)
Remaining games (5): vs. Calgary (Mar. 26), vs. Vancouver (Apr. 9), vs. Colorado (Apr. 16), vs. San Diego (Apr. 23) and at Panther City (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: Their W column total is close to the teams their tangling with for a post-season berth, but those nine Ls mean the Rush are definitely battling from behind. Two things still in their favour, however: #1 four of their final five are at home, where they’ve had considerably better results this year (3-2 at Sasktel vs. 1-7 everywhere else), and #2, on paper, the Rush are most definitely a playoff team.
Rochester Knighthawks 3-9 (13)
Remaining games (6): vs. Philadelphia (Mar. 26), at Halifax (Apr. 1), vs. Toronto (Apr. 9), at New York (Apr. 16), vs. Calgary (Apr. 22) and vs. Halifax (Apr. 30)
Playoff picture: Outside of an almost perfect run to end the regular season, the Knighthawks aren’t making the playoffs. They could play spoiler though, starting this weekend when they host the wobbling Wings, who cannot afford to drop many (if any) more decisions during their now desperate post-season drive.