NLL Player Rankings: Goalie of the Year
During the 2021/22 National Lacrosse League regular season, The Lax Mag listed the Top 30 players weekly by highlighting each games’ top six players (for both teams), attaching a point value to their in-game rank (1st = 6 points, 2nd = 5 points, etc.), and averaging that out over the entire season.
For those that haven’t been following, here’s a bit more on how we calculate our Top 30, plus why we’re doing it.
With the regular season complete, over the next several weeks The Lax Mag’s NLL Player Rankings will examine the top contenders for the NLL’s major year-end awards, starting with Rookie of the Year and ending with MVP. The most valuable rundown will also include our final take at the Top 30 too.
Nick Rose, Toronto Rock (Photo: Ryan McCullough)
Goalie of the Year Analysis
There are three goalies this year that you could easily argue as the season’s top stopper: Matt Vinc (Buffalo), Dillon Ward (Colorado) and Nick Rose (Toronto).
That talented tendy trio are three very different goalies. From their frame, approach and positional play, there’s not a whole lot of similarities between their games, well, outside of success.
Frank Scigliano (San Diego) and Zach Higgins (Philadelphia) likely got some love from voters when they submitted their ballots a few weeks ago, ditto for Doug Jamieson (Albany), Christian Del Bianco (Calgary), and Warren Hill (Halifax), although many likely forgot what an outstanding first half of the season he had. League voting members are asked to rank their Top 5 for various year-end honours.
Frank Scigliano, San Diego Seals (Photo: Mike McGinnis)
Of goalies that played 50% or more of their team’s season, only three ranked within the three most prominent stopper stats: goals against average, save percentage and wins. Those three goalies, as you may have guessed, were Vinc, Ward and Rose. Here are this season’s Top 5 (again, for goalies that played more than 50% of their team’s minutes) for those stats:
Goals Against Average
1. Nick Rose, 9.05
2. Frank Scigliano 9.78
3. Matt Vinc, 10.10
4. Warren Hill, 10.21
5. Dillon Ward, 10.22
GAA is often looked at as a team or defensive-unit stat, with many contributing to goals against in a game, even though it’s the goalie that garners much of the glory. Don’t agree? The Saskatchewan Rush, who struggled throughout the season to secure Ws and missed the playoffs entirely, still showcased one of the top defensive units in the NLL, led by the likes of Kyle Rubisch, Ryan Dilks, Matt Beers and others. Rush goalies Eric Penney (who played just nine games this year, sidelined first as an unsigned free agent and then due to a season-ending injury) and Adam Shute ranked fourth and seventh in the league respectively when it came to GAA. Neither netminder is in the conversation for GOTY. So is a low GAA important? Of course. Is it the sole or best indicator when judging backstops? Clearly not.
Dillon Ward, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Jack Dempsey)
Save Percentage
1. Matt Vinc, .807
2. Dillon Ward, .804
3. Nick Rose, .803
4. Zach Higgins, .801
5. Frank Scigliano, .793
It’s the first time since 2015 that Vinc has led the league in save percentage. Actually, he co-led with Rose that winter (.803). Most past and present goalies would tell you that this stat is a more precise indicator of a stopper’s overall success. Our previously mentioned 2022 Top 3 are separated by just .004. Going back to 2005, the most accurate and available NLL stats available online (we’ve been painfully bouncing between the solo season available on NLL.com and past Pointstreak collections all season), this year’s razor-thin margin between those three is the smallest ever.
Matt Vinc, Buffalo Bandits
Wins
1. Matt Vinc, 14
2. Nick Rose, 13
3. Christian Del Bianco, 10
4. Several tied at 9, including Dillon Ward
Even more so than GAA, wins (and losses) is very much a team stat. Like a quarterback in football, pitchers in baseball, and goalies in hockey or lacrosse, records always get recorded to their stat line, even though they are an unideal indicator of overall impact. With that said, how did today’s Top 3 fare in games against one another this year?
1. Dillon Ward, 1-0 (1.000)
2. Nick Rose, 2-1 (0.667)
3. Matt Vinc, 1-3 (0.250)
When examining Vinc, Ward and Rose, we took a slightly deeper data dive into goals against average, save percentage, and a useful stat we reviewed earlier this season, saves per minute. We pulled their digits from start one back in December all the way to the final record-breaking Saturday of the NLL season. All three played 18 games total in 2022.
Goals Against Average
Outside of that monster mountain for Ward (vs. Vancouver) followed by a powerfully pleasing plunge (at Vancouver), all three goalies stayed relatively close and consistent when it came to their GAA. Oddly enough, they all saw bit of a slip about a month in, and then again in the middle of the year.
Save Percentage
Unlike the relatively straight line we saw in the first chart (minus Ward against the Warriors), this ones much more of a roller-coaster ride throughout the regular season. While Vinc’s save percentage appears to be the most consistent from start to finish, Rose’s final two months of the season sees the straightest stretch of any stopper this year, all above .800 too.
Saves Per Minute
Saves per minute helps indicate which goalies thrived the most under mounting pressure. The above-average amount of dots Vinc has higher than the 0.8 mark tells you he was tested often all year, his league-leading 14 wins further fortifying just how good he was in 2022. That 13th start dot, the one almost exploding off the chart altogether, was a March 27th match against the Halifax Thunderbirds. Vinc, who’ll turn 40 next month, was required to make a save per minute that night, an absurd ask of any goalie. Buffalo won the game, 16-11.
Also worth noting is how much Rose’s line rises towards the end of the season. The Northmen-educated netminder was required to make more saves down the stretch as the Rock became the hottest team in the league heading into the playoffs. It’s no coincidence that in the last two charts, the Rock’s impressive post-season peak aligned perfectly with Rose’s statistical spikes.
Coaches and teammates we’ve talked to from all three teams noted that their starter could easily be their MVP this year. The NLL has just once voted a goalie as their most valuable.
Who will win the 2021/22 NLL Goalie of the Year Award?
While no singular stat or fancy chart above will definitively tell who the best backstop is today, once combined, the picture becomes much clearer.
Based on The Lax Mag’s full-season tracking of this year’s top players (all analysis above used weekly to rank the league’s many talented goaltenders), this year’s most likely to win NLL GOTY year is… Matt Vinc. Like the all-time tiny difference in save percentage between the three spectacular stoppers (.004), the best-goalie vote should be incredibly close too. It’s not surprise that all three are still competing in the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.