NLL Finals Game 3: How underdogs have fared against the favourites in the Finals
Between our East, West and NLL Finals series previews, plus our subsequent game previews after that, it’s safe to say, we’ve previewed tonight’s final two teams to death over the past almost two months.
Both Cup-worthy competitors have proved as even as our series preview suggested (even after Eli McLaughlin went down, but back up just hours before tonight’s title tilt, and then seemingly still sidelined), but who has the edge going into tonight’s Cup-deciding Game 3 between the Buffalo Bandits and Colorado Mammoth?
A couple of National Lacrosse League GOATS mentioned a meaningful-motivating factor that could come into play tonight, especially with everything else so seemingly similar between 2022’s final two.
John Tavares, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Ben Green)
After Buffalo’s Game 1 win, Head Coach John Tavares, who played in plenty of Finals over his illustrious career, commented on the motivation a team can experience when considered the underdog. “The last few times we’ve made the championship, against Calgary & Colorado, we’ve been the favourite and had home-floor advantage,” Tavares said soon after his Bandits took a 1-0 series lead. “Colorado was a one-game series and Calgary was a two-game series, and we lost all three games.
“I personally like being the underdog. When you’re a favourite, I think it’s harder. They come into our building, and they’re not supposed to win…There’s a lot of pressure on the favoured team to win.”
Dallas Eliuk, Scott Gabrielsen and Paul Gait, 1994 MILL Championship
Soon after it was announced that Banditland would be sold out with over 19,000 expected for tonight’s last game of the season, 4x Cup winner and fellow NLL Hall-of-Fame member Dallas Eliuk tweeted, “All the pressure is on the Bandits.” The Philadelphia Wings legend appeared in seven Cup Finals, winning the title in hostile territory as the underdog in 1994 (vs. Buffalo ) and in 2001 (vs. Toronto), where he was named the game’s MVP, too.
Since 1987, the favourite (or higher seed) has won the NLL Cup 20 times, while the underdogs (or lower seed) have impressively claimed the Cup in 13 Finals. While home-floor advantage was often an added edge for the favourite, during the league’s early seasons, the side with the stronger regular-season attendance hosted. Still.
2019 NLL Finals, Calgary Roughnecks vs. Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Candice Ward)
In recent years, the Cup underdogs have had an even stronger win rate. Since 2013, the lower-seeded side have won four NLL Cups to the fave’s three, including the last time the trophy was awarded when Tavares’ Bandits were bounced by the Roughnecks in two straight. Even in 2016, when the Bandits and Saskatchewan Rush owned the same division-leading 13-5 record, Buffalo was granted the higher seed and had a possible two games at home in the finals again that year. They were swept in that series, too.
Although Buffalo has won the Cup four times, as Tavares also pointed out in recent weeks, the team has lost in the Final more often than they’ve won. In fact, in almost every Cup Final they’ve lost, Buffalo was the home-floor favourite, including 2006, when Colorado clipped them.
John Lintz, Colorado and Dhane Smith,Buffalo (Photo: Ben Green)
The Mammoth have been considered underdogs in virtually every game they’ve played during the 2022 playoffs. First, they were expected to lose to a second-half streaking Calgary Roughnecks team. They beat them. Without a now-limping Ryan Lee, everyone had them falling to the West’s #1 seeded San Diego Seals too. They beat them. In all of the social-media polls we ran, the Bandits were strong 70%+ favourites to win the Finals. Well, the Mammoth are still here, their confidence likely the highest it’s been all season after last Saturday’s season-saving stunner.
Will the pressure of tonight’s sold-out Game 3 in Banditland burden #1 ranked Buffalo to the point they repeat their previous failures in the Finals?
Can Colorado continue to conquer the critics and again bump the favoured Bandits, who tonight will have 19K+ booing the Mammoth’s every move?
You tell us…