NLL Finals Game 2: It’s do or die in Denver for Cup-craving Colorado
In an incredibly close contest that required an unlikely game-winning goal (Nick Weiss) and a somewhat expected last-second save from arguably the greatest shot stopper ever (Matt Vinc), the Buffalo Bandits kept their perfect post-season streak going with an NLL Finals Game 1 win over the Colorado Mammoth last week.
Before the series started, we previewed the highly anticipated East vs. West showdown. Here’s what to look for in Game 2.
NLL Finals
East #1 Buffalo Bandits vs. West #3 Colorado Mammoth
Bandits lead best-of-three series 1-0
Game 1: Colorado 14 at Buffalo 15
Game 2: Saturday, June 11, 8pm ET at Ball Arena
Game 3: Saturday, June 18, 730pm ET at KeyBank Center (if necessary)
Matt Spanger, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Ben Green)
Pivotal Plays
We gave the slight edge to Tim Edwards and the Mammoth in the face-off department last week, but it was actually Max Adler that finished with five more FOWs in the Bandits’ favour during Game 1. With that said, after Weiss scored with 51 seconds left on the clock, Edwards won what was probably the most important draw of the match to give the Colorado offense a pretty pivotal possession. The Mammoth had two shots blocked and then Buffalo’s Matt Spanger came up with an absolutely massive loose ball against a pair of Colorado forwards. Sure, the Bandits messed up the restart (8-second violation) versus essentially calling game, but that loosie was still a major money move by Spanger.
As we proved earlier this year, winning various in-game statistical battles means very little to an NLL final score, including faceoffs & loose balls. In fact, the Toronto Rock heavily out loosied Buffalo in the East Final (197 to 135) and still got swept in the series. In the West Final between the Mammoth and San Diego Seals, the team that collected more LB lost every game in that conference finale.
So, will face-off wins and loose-ball scoops dictate who wins on Saturday? The numbers say no. Will specific FOWs and grounders continue to be important during a post-season where final-score differentials have been so incredibly slim? 100%, yes.
Joey Cupido, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Michael Hetzel)
Transition
Again, we gave the pre-Game 1 edge to the Mammoth here - transition an area of their game they are better than most in - but the Bandits probably performed to a higher degree here too. In our Sunday morning post-game links post, we reviewed the quick decision making Buffalo defenders Ian MacKay and Nick Weiss showed on a critical restart, Weiss seconds later becoming the only non-forward to score in the game. In fact, goalie Dillon Ward and defender Warren Jeffrey were the Mammoth’s only defensive players to contribute to any on-paper offensive production, the pair finishing with a helper apiece. Although Weiss was the only defender who scored all game, between MacKay, Spanger, Kevin Brownell and Frank Brown, Buffalo D-first players had a combined 6 assists to support their full-time forwards’ up-front efforts. That’s significant.
Although the extra production Colorado got from Zed Williams (4G, 4A) & Brett McIntyre (3G, 2A), both having arguably the greatest 60-minute stretches of their NLL careers in Game 1, was huge, the Mammoth are usually most successful when they’re getting some O pop from their press too. When Colorado beat Buffalo during their lone 2022 regular season contest, the Mammoth got goals and assists from five D/T talents: Joey Cupido (1G, 1A) Alex Woodall (2G), Erik Turner (2A), Jordan Gilles (1A), and Jeffrey (1A). Turner, who appeared to provide a significant spark in Colorado’s Game 3 win over San Diego (especially to start), did not play last week.
Matt Vinc, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)
Matt Vinc
File this non-breaking-news nugget away under “duh”, but for the Mammoth to win Game 2, they’ve gotta hope Vinc slips a bit between the pipes. Sure, he rarely does, but he kinda did in Denver earlier this year.
When we analyzed Vinc, Ward and Nick Rose in our in-depth Goalie of the Year breakdown, Vinc’s & Buffalo’s late-season sideways-stretch started in, yep, Denver. The charts we compiled when analyzing Vinc’s season sunk during that Week 15 loss to the Mammoth at Ball Arena, arguably the biggest win for Colorado during the regular season. The .694 save percentage he had in that game was the second lowest of his otherwise pretty stellar season. His GAA and saves/minute were some of his worst that night too.
In fact, Vinc’s away stats in general this year were not nearly as strong has his netminding numbers when backstopping in Banditland. In road games, Vinc allowed almost two more goals than he would at home (home, 9.18 vs. away, 11.03), his away save percentage slipped some too (home, 0.826 vs. away, 0.773), and on average was making five fewer saves/game on the road (home, 44 vs. away, 39). He’s been unbeatable (outside of Game 1 vs. Toronto, but that one was bananas) in the playoffs so far, but the Mammoth did dent his digits in Denver back in back in April.
Can they do it again? They’ll have to.