NLL Conference Finals: Why they’ll win and why they won’t
The 2023 National Lacrosse League Conference Finals begin on Thursday, May 11 when the Colorado Mammoth host Game 1 of the West Finals against the Calgary Roughnecks at Denver’s Ball Arena (9:30pm ET).
The East Conference gets their best-of-three series started the following night when the Toronto Rock travels to the KeyBank Center on Friday, May 12 (7:30pm ET) to play this season’s #1 seed, the Buffalo Bandits.
Prior to the start of either highly anticipated series (the most compelling final four ever?), we’ll tell you the main reason why any of the four teams will move on, plus why they may not.
Also on TheLaxMag.com:
The Links: Buffalo blasts Rochester in rare 20-goal playoff pounding; Pace propels Calgary past PCLC
The Links: Zach Manns pops off in playoffs, again; Eli McLaughlin ends San Diego’s season, again
The NLL GOATs that consistently got it done during the playoffs
East Conference Finals
Best-of-three series
E1 Buffalo Bandits vs. E2 Toronto Rock
Game 1: Friday, May 12, 7:30pm ET, KeyBank Centre
Game 2: Saturday, May 13, 7pm ET, FirstOntario Centre
Game 3: Saturday, May 20, 7:30pm ET, KeyBank Centre (if necessary)
Kyle Buchanan & Dhane Smith, Buffalo Bandits
Why Buffalo Will Win
No team may be more dialed for dominance than the Bandits, who obliterated the Rochester Knighthawks to open the playoffs last week at an almost record-high level, plus ended their regular season in much finer form than they did a season ago (3-1 vs. 1-3 over the last month). That regular season conclusion included a confidence-boosting 11-10 win over the same team they’ll see this week, the Rock.
Why Buffalo Won’t Win
Because Toronto also looked really good last week, and never let up even after Warren Hill seemed to have their number early, which had been a bit of an issue in last year’s losses (letting hot goalies get to them). In Buffalo’s Week 21 win over the Rock, Toronto actually led the game for nearly 47 minutes and held the Bandits scoreless for a lenghty 17-minute stretch. A few regular season weeks earlier, the Rock took the lead a minute in against the Bandits, and never looked back (18-7L). Between those two games, Toronto maintained a lead for 106 of the total 120 minutes. Although Halifax pressured them often, Toronto never trailed in last week’s quarterfinals win either. During last year’s two postseason Ws over the Rock, the Bandits were in command of the scoreline throughout most of both games. If they don’t take control early & often, Toronto will be a persistent problem during this year’s playoffs.
Dan Dawson, Toronto Rock (Photo: Christian Bender)
Why Toronto Will Win
Because much like Rock glory year teams, this Toronto team has had their depth tested, and passed, which incudes last week’s win over Halifax. With leading scorer Tom Schreiber sidelined with an upper body injury, the Rock received a huge playoff performance from Zach Manns, who co-led the game in goals (3), assists (3) and points. You’ve got Nick Rose playing the part of Bob Watson, statistically the most dominant defensive unit in the league (just like in the old days), and a forward cast that can still excel even if a star is sidelined or high-profile forward freezes up on the floor.
Why Toronto Won’t Win
Because everything we said above about the Rock, you could also say about the Bandits, who finished a win ahead of Toronto in the standings. Plus, while the Rock own a better record in the all-time regular season series against their bitter Buffalo rivals (36-29), the Bandits actually have the slight edge during the playoffs (5-3), including last year’s East Conference Finals sweep courtesy of two one-goal wins. In fact, Buffalo has won the last four postseason games against Toronto. When was the Rock’s last win over the Bandits in the playoffs? Over a decade ago: May 5, 2012 (7-6 in the East Division Semifinals).
West Conference Finals
Best-of-three series
E2 Calgary Roughnecks vs. E4 Colorado Mammoth
Game 1: Thursday, May 11, 9:30pm ET, Ball Arena
Game 2: Saturday, May 13, 9:30pm ET, Scotiabank Saddledome
Game 3: Saturday, May 20, 9:30pm ET, Scotiabank Saddledome (if necessary)
Tyler Pace & Haiden Dickson, Calgary Roughnecks (Photo: Candice Ward)
Why Calgary Will Win
Absolutely no one gave them a chance after losing Dane Dobbie two years ago and Curtis Dickson last summer. Not a single person outside of their province had them going this far. Head Coach Curt Malawsky is the master of an us-versus-everyone-else approach. Christian Del Bianco is playing MVP-worthy ball between the pipes. Their defense is the fastest in the league and can cripple you on the press. We could keep going, but basically, they’re winning because everyone told them they couldn’t and they clearly have the skills to shut us the F up.
Why Calgary Won’t Win
Well, it certainly seems like Tyler Pace won’t be available to them for Thursday’s Game 1, Malawsky confirming last week their game-changing forward is dealing with border-crossing issues as of late. Would they have won last week’s quarterfinal against Panther City without him? Sure, someone may have stepped up, but Pace’s performance was paramount in that very narrow win (his fourth quarter natural hat-trick included the game-tying, go-head and game-winning goal). Even though Colorado was the lower seed, they’ll be hosting Game 1 in Denver with Calgary getting the next two at the Saddledome. Possibly being down 0-1 against the defending champs isn’t an ideal situation, but then again, this team has definitely been doubted before, yet here we are.
Zed Williams, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Jack Dempsey)
Why Colorado Will Win
Because the combination of an on-his-game Dillon Ward, the most clutch forward cast in the league over the past two years, and a defensive unit coached by Pat Coyle & Andrew McBride, plus led on the floor by last year’s NLL & Mann-winning captain, Robert Hope, is a formula that is hard for any opposition to fracture. This team was built for the playoffs. They proved it last year, and again last weekend.
Why Colorado Won’t Win
Before last week’s quarterfinals win (13-12), the Mammoth had lost their previous nine playoff dates against the Roughnecks, who took this year’s regular season series 2-1. Plus, in their most recent match (March 10 in Denver), Calgary was missing Pace but got goals from nine different players in all sorts of on-floor situations. Yes, Ward had arguably his worst start of the season and Ryan Lee was MIA, but Calgary has proven they can connect with or without Dobbie, Dickson, Pace or whoever, no matter what the other side has going on. The Roughnecks’ offense has more weapons than it’s given credit for, and their high-paced press is almost impossible to keep up with.