Most likely to make the 2025 NLL playoffs
Kyle Buchanan, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)
There are only five weeks of regular season lacrosse left in the National Lacrosse League, and while only one team’s post-season aspirations have mathematically ended, current records and recent results give us a pretty good idea of who 2025’s eight playoff-qualifying clubs will be.
Today, The Lax Mag looks at team’s pre-Week 17 records, who they have left on their schedule, plus who we predict will make it and who’ll join the Las Vegas Desert Dogs on the season-ending sidelines when Week 21 rolls around.
Essentially In
Buffalo Bandits (10-2) .833
Week 17: vs. Las Vegas, at Albany
Week 18: vs. Vancouver
Week 19: at Colorado
Week 20: vs. Halifax
Week 21: at Georgia
The Bandits can likely lose out and still make the playoffs. That won’t happen, not by a long shot, but if it did, they’re already safe. Due to all their early byes, they do have a really back-loaded schedule, which isn’t ideal leading into the playoffs (based on workload at least). Buffalo’s been relatively healthy all year, but (knock on wood) if injuries were to happen, it’s these final five weeks that provide a platform for that to occur.
Playoff Prognostication: In
Jake Boudreau, Saskatchewan Rush
Saskatchewan Rush (10-4) .714
Week 18: vs. Colorado
Week 19: vs. Calgary
Week 20: at Colorado
Week 21: vs. Ottawa
Like Buffalo, they’re like 99.99999% in, which would see the Rush in the playoffs for the first time since 2019. After last week’s first flop of the year (if you don’t count the lacklustre loss to Toronto), some are wondering if the young upstarts have peaked too early. As The Lax Mag has reviewed before, teams that go .500 or lower over the last month of their season almost never win the NLL Cup. Only three teams since 2002 have pulled that off (’03 Toronto, ’11 Toronto and ’12 Rochester). After feasting on the opposition during a mid-season-five-game-win streak, the Rush are just 1-2 since March 1. These final four games are actually kinda critical for the Rush to reroute their successful season heading into the playoffs. Even though they’re pretty much postseason locks, their last month is massively important to their Cup-winning hopes. At least, that’s what the history books say.
Playoff Prognostication: In
A Win or Two Away
Colorado Mammoth (8-5) .615
Week 17: at Ottawa
Week 18: at Saskatchewan
Week 19: vs. Buffalo
Week 20: vs. Saskatchewan
Week 21: at Calgary Roughnecks
Based on how poorly Ottawa has been playing of late, the Black Bears game is obviously appealing, but the rest of the Mammoth’s schedule is super stressful, especially for a team that, as always seems to be the case in Colorado in recent years, is dealing with significant injuries at the worst possible time. So, let’s say they beat the Black Bears this weekend…. A 9-9 record might already get them in depending on who they end up tied with. Going 0-3 against Saskatchewan twice and Buffalo once is the most likely outcome based on this year’s results (not hating, just stating), but a win over that scary stretch would obvious be beyond beneficial. Although their future may already be figured out by then, there is a decent chance Colorado’s season comes down to that last game against long-time rival Calgary, who’ll likely be in a similar if not identical spot to the Mammoth in Week 21.
Playoff Prognostication: In
Dillon Ward, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Heather Barry)
Halifax Thunderbirds (8-5) .615
Week 17: vs. Ottawa
Week 18: at Georgia
Week 19: vs. San Diego
Week 20: at Buffalo
Week 21: at Toronto
Last weekend’s win over Saskatchewan was significant. Even though there have been few teams as hot as Halifax over the past month, the Thunderbirds have had one of the weaker records against teams above .500 and/or in a playoff-qualifying position this year. By beating the Rush - actually annihilating the Rush 17-9 - the Thunderbirds got a sky-high confidence boost at a pretty perfect time in the season. Can they win two more over this season-ending stretch? Easily.
Playoff Prognostication: In
Rochester Knighthawks (8-7) .533
Week 18: vs. San Diego
Week 19: vs. Ottawa
Week 21: vs. Toronto
Sure, another win or two would get Rochester in, but the boys only have three games left on their schedule to get that done. The Knighthawks (2.0) rarely play the Seals, and are 0-2 against them all time. In fact, Rochester offensive leader Connor Fields was a rookie with San Diego when the two teams first met in 2020. Only three of their eight wins this year have come courtesy of a present playoff-positioned team. If that trend continues (so, wins over Ottawa and Toronto), they’ll be 10-8 and surely competing in the postseason. Even though the Rock roster has seen a number of high-profile names either still injured (Mark Matthews) or traded (Nick Rose, Mitch de Snoo and Chris Corbeil), the Knighthawks have struggled severely against Toronto (1-6 regular season, 0-1 playoffs). In conclusion: like last year, get ready for another wild end to their season.
Playoff Prognostication: In
Rylan Hartley, Rochester Knighthawks (Photo: Jonathan Tenca)
Control Their Own Destiny
Georgia Swarm (7-6) .538
Week 17: at Vancouver
Week 18: vs. Halifax
Week 19: vs. Philadelphia
Week 20: at Philadelphia
Week 21: vs. Buffalo
Since their 4-0 start to the season, the Swarm have struggled to find consistency and are often on the wrong side of one-goal games. Their late-game loss to Albany last weekend was probably their most deflating result of the year. Games against Vancouver, Halifax and Buffalo are going to be tough, and even though they get a fast-fading Philadelphia twice, Georgia are only 4-7 against the (2.0) Wings all time, which includes a number of, again, late losses. While they do control their own destiny, the Swarm’s results this year and past ones against the above teams, suggests they may be on the outside looking in come May. A loss to Vancouver this weekend, which would also obviously give the Warriors a critical head-to-head tiebreaker, feels kinda fatal.
Playoff Prognostication: Out
Wes Berg, San Diego Seals (Photo: Kalea Vizmanos)
San Diego Seals (7-6) .538
Week 17: at Calgary
Week 18: at Rochester
Week 19: at Halifax
Week 20: at Albany
Week 21: vs. Albany
The Seals have dealt with A LOT of injury-related issues this year. Trevor Baptiste, Kyle Rubsich, Tre Leclaire and even Ryan Benesch have all missed - in most cases - a lot of time this season, Baptiste and Rubisch especially. To be 7-6 and one of the hottest teams five weeks prior to the playoffs, based on what they’ve overcome this year, is really impressive. Outside of playing four of their final five away, San Diego’s remaining games aren’t too bad. Perseverance and obviously peaking at the perfect time have been ongoing themes when it comes to recent Cup-winners’ regular season resumes. San Diego has clearly had stronger regular seasons in recent years, but they may be more battled tested and ready for a run in 2025 than any of those previous Cup-less campaigns.
Playoff Prognostication: In
Calgary Roughnecks (7-7) .500
Week 17: vs. San Diego
Week 19: at Saskatchewan
Week 21: at Las Vegas
Week 21: vs. Colorado
Calgary has not won more than two straight games all season, a trend that would almost surely keep them out of the playoffs if it continues. Their last four games are also a bit of a bitch, including that Las Vegas one that most would look at as favourable. Why? They’ll also see Colorado that same weekend, in what will surely be a critical playoff-qualifying contest, and unlike the Roughnecks, the Mammoth only play once that weekend. They looked really good in that win over the Bandits in Week 15. They’ll need that same effort the rest of the way if they hope to sneak into the postseason.
Playoff Prognostication: In
Christian Del Bianco, Vancouver Warriors (Photo: Jordan Leigh)
Vancouver Warriors (6-7) .462
Week 17: vs. Georgia
Week 18: at Buffalo
Week 19: vs. Albany
Week 20: at Toronto
Week 21: vs. Philadelphia
Outside of that 3-0 stretch against quality sides early in the season (Rochester 10-7, Calgary 14-10 and San Diego 11-9), the Warriors have not had a lot of success since, but last week might have been the start of something special. At 5-7 a few weeks back, goaltending really wasn’t the issue for Vancouver, who actually had reliable shot stopping from Aden Walsh. Still, the team dramatically landed Christian Del Bianco at the trade deadline, which would be an upgrade for arguably any team in the league. And while goaltending was not the issue in Vancouver, adding an elite-level tendy like Del Bianco allows the players in front of him to play with a confidence that only a handful of goalies would provide in the game today. That upgraded confidence was came through crystal clear in the Warriors’ 13-8 victory over Toronto last week. While Vancouver still sees Buffalo in Banditland, the rest of their remaining games are most definitely doable.
Playoff Prognostication: In
Ottawa Black Bears (5-7) .417
Week 17: at Halifax
Week 17: vs. Colorado
Week 18: at Philadelphia
Week 19: at Rochester
Week 20: vs. Las Vegas
Week 21: at Saskatchewan
Technically, Ottawa still controls their post-season destiny, but few clubs have been as ice cold as the Black Bears over the past two months, the team looking anything like a roster primed for a playoff run. Ottawa has lost their last three games by a combined score of 47-26, have hit double digits in a game just once over their last seven, and look like they’ve given up on the season in so many ways – statistically and visually. The fire they were so proudly playing with at the start of the season has long been extinguished, Jeff Teat’s fourth-quarter frustrations last weekend the only visible sign that (almost) any player wearing red & black gave a single solitary fuck after yet another embarrassing loss. Can Ottawa make the playoffs? Mathematically, sure. Will they make the playoffs? If you’ve watched any of their last three games, no is the only correct response. Six remaining games gives the Black Bears enough time to salvage a season that is quickly slipping away, but the team needs to act now. A 2-0 Week 17 against playoff-hungry Halifax & Colorado would be season saving, while two more checks in the L column would all but kill any playoff hopes.
Playoff Prognostication: Out
Jeff Teat, Ottawa Black Bears (Photo: Christian Bender)
Win Every Game
Philadelphia Wings (5-8) .385
Week 17: at Toronto
Week 18: vs. Ottawa
Week 19: at Georgia
Week 20: vs. Georgia
Week 21: at Vancouver
Playoff Prognostication: Out
Albany FireWolves (5-9) .357
Week 17: vs. Buffalo
Week 19: at Vancouver
Week 20: vs. San Diego
Week 21: at San Diego
Playoff Prognostication: Out
Toronto Rock (4-9) .308
Week 17: vs. Philadelphia
Week 19: at Las Vegas
Week 20: vs. Vancouver
Week 21: vs. Halifax
Week 21: at Rochester
Playoff Prognostication: Out
Nick Damude, Philadelphia Wings
While Philadelphia may still have a chance to qualify with another L, the reality here is, lose another game and your playoff chances are surely over no matter what the math says. The Wings are riding one of the worst losing-streaks we’ve seen in recent seasons, the FireWolves final four games probably the toughest last stretch of any still-alive team, and the Rock holding more of an uber-early 2025-26 team tryout than a plausible playoff push.
If the season ended today, Toronto would own the first, second and fourth overall picks in the top-heavy 2025 NLL Entry Draft. Presently, Philadelphia and Albany won’t be picking until the third round. Not a huge deal for the FireWolves, who are already loaded with recent high picks who have yet to hit their prime, but might be for the Wings, who again sport one of the oldest rosters (and the eldest O) in the league.
Already Eliminated
Las Vegas Desert Dogs (3-11) .214
Week 17: at Buffalo
Week 19: vs. Toronto
Week 20: at Ottawa
Week 21: vs. Calgary
Instead of fighting for a playoff spot, the recently eliminated Desert Dogs will instead be attempting to avoid ending the year with one of the worst records in league history.
Below are the lowest regular season winning percentages ever in the NLL, Las Vegas currently riding the 16th worst if their season ended today. Vegas is a combined 1-6 all time against their remaining 2025 opponents.
1996 Charlotte Cobras (0-10) .000
2004 Anaheim Storm (1-15) .063
2006 Edmonton Rush (1-15) .063
2001 Ottawa Rebel (1-13) .071
2000 Syracuse Smash (1-11) .083
2018 Vancouver Stealth (2-16) .111
1989 Washington Wave (1-7) .125
1990 Detroit Turbos (1-7) .125
1993 Pittsburgh Bulls (1-7) .125
1994 Baltimore Thunder (1-7) .125
1998 Syracuse Smash (2-10) .167
2023 Albany FireWolves (3-15) .167
2003 New Jersey Storm (3-13) .188
2003 New York Saints (3-13) .188
1997 Baltimore Thunder (2-8) .200
2025 Las Vegas Desert Dogs (3-11…) .214
Jack Hannah, Las Vegas Desert Dogs