Why Day 1 success at the Minto almost always leads to a Cup win

Port Coquitlam Saints (Photo: Jamie Douglas)

If you lose your opening game on Day 1 of the Minto Cup, history tells us a team’s chances of taking the tournament’s title drop dramatically.

Since the Minto went from an Ontario vs. British Columbia seven-game series to a round-robin tourney in 2003 (and excluding the short-lived Western Final series between Alberta & BC), every eventual Minto Cup winner except for one were 1-0 after the opening day of the four-team event.

That one and only team were the 2007 Six Nations Arrows, who lost to the host New Westminster Salmonbellies at Queens Park Arena to open that year’s Minto (10-7), but then went on to beat them in the semis (6-5) and then badly bounce Burnaby in the finals (19-8).

Dan Lewis, 2010 Minto Cup (Photo: Ward Laforme Jr.)

In fact, technically that Arrows loss happened on Day 2, event organizers spacing out round robin games back then to just one match a day. Plus, unlike today’s best-of-three series to determine the champ, it was just a one and done in 2007.

Anyways, that record-book research is not the greatest news for this year’s Day 1 losers – the Orangeville Northmen losing to BCJALL runner ups the Port Coquitlam Saints (12-7) and the RMLL champion Raiders Lacrosse Club losing their opener to the Coquitlam Adanacs (10-8), who are both hosts and BC’s top-ranked side. Side note: It’s been almost exactly two months since Coquitlam has even lost a game.

Last night’s loss by Orangeville puts them at 6-2 when it comes to their all-time Day 1 round-robin record at the Minto. The only other time they failed to formulate a W in a tourney opener was back in 2016 to, coincidentally, the Adanacs, losing that game 8-7 and then dropping the final series to them too (three games to two).

Jonathan Donville & Dylan Watson, 2019 Minto Cup (Photo: BCJALL)

In fact, their finals luck against by far BC’s most successful modern-era team, the Adanacs, has not been great when the Minto is hosted in beautiful British Columbia, also losing the 2010 tournament to Coquitlam in Coquitlam. Orangeville’s last Minto win, however, happened out west at the Langley Events Centre when they topped the Adanacs and everyone else while going 6-0 to take the 2019 tournament.

While the Adanacs won’t have a chance to repeat their previously mentioned 2016 success as this year’s Minto due to their title as 2024 BCJALL playoff winners (you’ll understand in a sec), Port Coquitlam put themselves in a tremendous position to pull off what Coquitlam did that summer.

What makes this year’s Saints so potentially special? Well…

The 2006 Peterborough Lakers and 2016 Adanacs are the only two teams in Minto history to finish as their province’s post-season runners up (host provinces get two Minto Cup entries every year) and then also capture Canada’s Junior A Cup. And yes, both teams won their Day 1 games during those historic seasons. Side note: Those Lakers are also the lowest-ever seed to win a Minto.

Port Coquitlam are both a provincial second-place side, and as of last night, 1-0 at the 2024 Minto Cup.

Travis Cornwall, Port Coquitlam Saints (Photo: Jamie Douglas)

Past the 2007 Arrows, maybe the Minto’s most successful Day 1 losers were the 2022 Edmonton Miners. The Miners lost their opener to the Whitby Warriors (11-9) two Augusts ago, went on to have RMLL record-smashing success (see story #2 for more) all the way up to that year’s final, but then finished a win shy of becoming Alberta’s first-ever Minto champion.

Those almost trend-terminating results by the Miners should give this year’s Raiders hope, who hung around with the Adanacs last night during their eventual opening night L. Both RMLL teams dropped their Day 1 result by just two goals in games they were extremely competitive in.

No matter who wins or loses during today’s Day 2 of the 2024 Minto Cup, the top of the standings will see an undefeated team, so either Coquitlam or PoCo (10pm ET), two tied for second in the middle of the table (could be anyone), and someone at 0-2, which can only be yesterday’s losers, Orangeville or the Raiders (7pm ET).

A second loss to open the tournament would make it exceptionally difficult to fix a failed first day final. Obviously, no team has ever lost their first two games during the Minto’s round-robin stage and then went on to win the Cup.