Game 3: How the West will be won when the Seals & Mammoth meet
We’re down to a decisive do-or-die game to determine who’ll face the Buffalo Bandits in the 2022 National Lacrosse League Finals: the San Diego Seals or the Colorado Mammoth. The Seals forced a series-deciding Game 3 after Dane Dobbie dropped one of the most dramatic game winners in league history last week.
What will happen in tonight’s critical NLL Finals-clinching clash? Keep reading.
West Conference Finals
#1 San Diego Seals vs. #3 Colorado Mammoth
Best-of-three series tied 1-1
Game 1: Colorado 14 at San Diego 12
Game 2: San Diego 11 at Colorado 10 (OT)
Game 3: Saturday, May 28, 2022, 10pm ET at Pechanga Arena
Dane Dobbie, San Diego Seals
Secondary Scoring, Again
Although the Seals won Game 3 with goals from only three players (Dobbie, Austin Staats and Zack Greer got all their goals), with Ryan Lee gone since just before Game 1, the Mammoth likely can’t win in the same fashion. Colorado’s Game 1 win saw Eli McLaughlin and Connor Robinson go off (7 goals combined), but the team also got significant secondary support (like Zed Williams’ 5 goals), something they hadn’t had consistently during the regular season. In fact, Lee, McLaughlin and Robinson accounted for nearly 60% of the Mammoth’s regular-season goal production this year. With Robinson going goalless in Game 2 (0G on 7SOG) and the Seals minimizing that secondary offensive support, it ultimately led to San Diego sinking them in OT.
With that said, it’s unlikely the Seals can squeeze another victory with so few scoring. Wes Berg is averaging a full goal less per game during the playoffs, Casey Jackson has just 2 goals in three games so far, and Brett Hickey, who did not play in Game 1, has just 2 assists in this year’s playoffs.
Update May 28, 2022 (4:45pm ET): The San Diego Seals tweeted that Hickey would not be available for tonight’s game, but Tyson Bomberry would.
One of this year’s best dishers, Jeremy Noble, not only leads the Seals in assists (12), but is third overall during the playoffs behind only Dhane Smith & Josh Byrne in Buffalo (15). Noble has also scored some significant game-defining goals this year too (2GWG). The Mammoth traded both Noble and Greer go the Seals before the 2020 season, receiving two draft picks in return. Those selections turned into Brett Craig (on IR since before the 2021/22 season started) and Curtis Conley, who the team later released.
Joey Cupido, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Jack Dempsey)
Transition Scoring
That previously mentioned secondary scoring can also come in the form of offensive-press points, which have been minimal over the series’ first two games. Both teams got huge goals and assists streaking over centre during their first-round wins and have also done exceptional jobs pushing pause and the opposition’s press in the West Finals. If either team can get those players free while pressing, those potential press goals would be massive exclamation marks on the game sheet.
We gave the series edge in transition to the Mammoth because of players like Joey Cupido, Jordan Gilles and even rookie Jalen Chaster, who already has as many assists during the playoffs as he did during the regular season. The Seals have received repeated outstanding performances from their own rookie defenseman, Patrick Shoemay, who has 3 goals on just 3 shots during the playoffs (he had none during the regular season). Depending on how yet another rookie, Tre Leclaire, is used in Game 2 (has started at either end this year), and even Mike McCannell, who played his first-ever NLL game last week (had a helper and 2 shots while looking far from out of place), San Diego has the potential to counter Colorado’s perceived superior two-way game.
Frank Scigliano, San Diego Seals
Goalies
Whatever happens in those previously mentioned key areas or dozens of others, ultimately, the play of San Diego’s Frank Scigliano and Colorado’s Dillon Ward between the pipes will likely be what determines the outcome in this one. Game 3 will mark the sixth game these two teams played against one another this year, Sciglinao and Ward playing virtual every minute in those matches. Here’s how their save percentages have stacked up in the first five.
Scigliano vs. Ward: Save %
Not a huge shocker (although not always the case) that the goalie with the higher save percentage also saw his team win the game, the Seals up 3-2 on the Mammoth going back to December 11th.
How unbelievably close is this goalie encounter going into Game 3? Although Ward has seen more shots vs. the Seals (244 to the 230 Scigliano has had fired at him) and slightly more saves (192 to 184), Scigliano’s .800 save percentage is just ever-so slightly higher than Ward’s .787. We may have given Ward the edge when we first previewed this series, but head to head, it honestly couldn’t get much closer.