Clutch Kings: Is overtime overrated?
Josh Byrne, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Colleen Shaw)
The Clutch Kings tracks an individual National Lacrosse League player’s game-tying, go-ahead, and game-winning goals, then weighs them based on when they’re scored (first, second, third or fourth quarter, plus OT), but also in what on-floor situation they’re finished (even-strength, power-play or short-handed goals). The deeper into a game you go, the more a goal is worth. We break the data down into three distinctive segments: first-to-third quarter, fourth quarter, and then of course overtime. Our weekly leaderboard and scoring system can be found at the bottom of this article.
Jonathan Donville, Panther City Lacrosse Club
We’ve typically skipped a week or two between Clutch Kings posts this season, but after what transpired this past weekend, well, obviously we needed one this week.
Why?
Half of last weekend’s eight games went to OT.
March 22: Panther City over Buffalo 12-11 OT
March 22: Calgary over Albany 10-9 OT
March 23: Toronto over Halifax 9-8 OT
March 23: San Diego over Las Vegas 10-9 OT
In addition to those four razor-thin finals, Sunday’s game in Duluth included a comeback for the ages when the Georgia Swarm, who were left scoreless after the first half, scored nine over the next half hour to get by the Saskatchewan Rush 9-7.
In virtually all of those narrow results, familiar faces factored heavily into the final scores.
Jonathan Donville scored his third game winner for Panther City this year. Two of those three, including this last one obviously, have happened in OT. Is that rare? Well, when we examined regular season OT winners almost exactly a year ago, there weren’t that many that have iced a game in OT multiple times over the course of their entire careers, let alone twice in one season.
PCLC teammate Callum Crawford has ranked really high on the Clutch Kings leaderboard all season, so it was no surprise the 39-year-old was the one that tied their game against Buffalo with just 19 seconds left on the game clock. Crawford also leads the NLL with the most go-ahead goals this year (8), plus has a couple game winners himself, including a last-minute clincher against the Swarm in February.
Although it came in a losing effort, Josh Byrne’s flurry of scoreboard-swinging goals shoots him to the top spot on our updated Clutch Kings leaderboard (as always, found at the bottom of this article). Byrne had four go-ahead goals and a fourth quarter tying strike, all in even-strength situations.
Toronto’s Mark Matthews smoothly sunk the Rock’s OT winner in a game they trailed for nearly 56 minutes against Halifax. As we highlighted earlier this year, Matthews has already crushed his clutch calculations from a season ago in Saskatchewan, this week jumping into our Top 10 too. Will he keep it up during this year’s playoffs? Well, as we pointed out last year, no one has scored more postseason game-winning goals than… Mark Matthews.
While his 30 total goals this year rank 18th overall after Week 17, Andrew Kew’s continued clutch touch sees him sitting third on our CK leaderboard. The Swarm, who again, did not score a single goal during the entire first half (confirmed really rare by Graeme Perrow), pulled off one of this year’s most thrilling comebacks, the winner courtesy of Kew. With four GWGs this year, Kew is now tied with Austin Staats for the lead league.
Most OT games in one season
After last week’s four extra-frame games, this year’s OT game total has hit 16. That matches the single-season, all-time high set during the 2022 regular season, and then again last year. With the way this year has played out, that record is as good as gone.
Coming out of Week 17, that means 15% of all regular season games this year have been decided in OT. That’s high, but not the highest the league has ever seen.
Season: % of games (league schedule length)
1988: 25% (16)
1990: 21% (24)
1998: 19% (42)
1993: 18% (28)
2011: 16% (80)
Do character-building OT wins also build champions?
Prior to winning last year’s NLL Cup, Buffalo had won eight straight OT games over the previous three regular seasons.
Winning close contests in extra innings seems like the type of character-building results a future Cup winner would need en route to a title, right? While the Bandits, who went 4-0 in OT games during the 2023 regular season, would suggest that statement to be true, the rest of the league’s record books would somewhat disagree.
Going back to Year 1 in 1987, NLL Cup winners have gone just 27-23 in regular season OT games during their Cup-winning campaigns - so just a bit over the .500 mark.
Only five other past champs went perfect like the Bandits did, but most with not nearly as many Ws.
1990: Philadelphia Wings 2-0
1993: Buffalo Bandits 1-0
1996: Buffalo Bandits 1-0
1998: Philadelphia Wings 3-0
2009: Calgary Roughnecks 1-0
The one record-related figure we found a few season ago that does almost always indicate who a potential Cup winner could be, is how well teams play over the last month of their regular season.
Toronto Rock, 2011 NLL Cup Champions (Photo: Ward Laforme Jr.)
Going back to 2005, only two eventual Cup winners owned a record below the .500 mark over the final month of their season: the 2011 Rock and 2012 Knighthawks.
Season: Team, Last Month (Full Season)
2023: Buffalo Bandits, 3-1 (14-4)
2022: Colorado Mammoth, 3-2 (10-8)
2019: Calgary Roughnecks, 4-1 (10-8)
2018: Saskatchewan Rush, 3-2 (14-4)
2017: Georgia Swarm, 5-1 (13-5)
2016: Saskatchewan Rush, 4-2 (13-5)
2015: Edmonton Rush, 6-1 (13-5)
2014: Rochester Knighthawks, 5-1 (14-4)
2013: Rochester Knighthawks, 4-2 (8-8)
2012: Rochester Knighthawks, 2-3 (7-9)
2011: Toronto Rock, 1-4 (10-6)
2010: Washington Stealth, 4-2 (11-5)
2009: Calgary Roughnecks, 5-2 (12-4)
2008: Buffalo Bandits, 3-1 (10-6)
2007: Rochester Knighthawks, 6-0 (14-2)
2006: Colorado Mammoth, 5-1 (10-6)
2005: Toronto Rock, 6-1 (12-4)
The 2024 regular season ends on April 21.
Josh Byrne, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Colleen Shaw)
NLL Clutch Kings: Week 17
CKs Rank. Player (NLL Gs Rank), Team, Clutch Points (GTG / GAG / GWG)
1. Josh Byrne (3), Buffalo, 34.00 (8/7/3)
2. Austin Staats (2), San Diego, 30.00 (4/7/4)
3. Andrew Kew (18), Georgia, 27.75 (4/3/4)
4. Jonathan Donville (T26), Panther City, 25.50 (6/4/3)
5. Callum Crawford (15), Panther City, 22.50 (4/8/2)
6. Will Malcom (T16), Panther City, 22.00 (6/7/0)
7. Wes Berg (11), San Diego, 21.25 (6/2/3)
8. Robert Church (8), Saskatchewan, 20.00 (8/4/1)
9. Connor Fields (4), Rochester, 19.75 (4/7/2)
10. Mark Matthews (T26), Toronto, 19.50 (6/2/2)
11. Ryan Smith (T5), Rochester, 19.25 (4/6/2)
12. Seth Oakes (T40), Georgia, 19.00 (5/2/2)
T13. Chris Cloutier (T34), Buffalo, 17.00 (9/1/1)
T13. Casey Jackson (10), Las Vegas, 17.00 (4/3/1)
15. Tye Kurtz (19), Albany, 16.75 (2/6/1)
T16. Shayne Jackson (T26), Georgia, 16.50 (1/7/1)
T16. Corey Small (T13), Toronto, 16.50 (4/3/2)
18. Adam Charalambides (T20), Vancouver, 16.25 (5/4/1)
T19. Tre Leclaire (T56), San Diego, 16.00 (7/1/2)
T19. Alex Simmons (T16), Albany, 16.00 (5/3/1)
Scoring System
First 3 Quarters (GTG/GAG/GWG)
Even-Strength Goal: 1.00/1.50/2.00
Power-Play Goal: 0.50/0.75/1.00
Short-Handed Goal: 2.00/3.00/4.00
Fourth Quarter (GTG/GAG/GWG)
Even-Strength Goal: 2.00/3.00/4.00
Power-Play Goal: 1.00/1.50/2.00
Short-Handed Goal: 4.00/6.00/8.00
Overtime (GWG)
Even-Strength Goal: 6.00
Power-Play Goal: 3.00
Short-Handed Goal: 12.00