Clutch Kings: How many goals in a game will get you a win?
Dhane Smith, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)
The Lax Mag’s Clutch Kings tracks an individual player’s game-tying, go-ahead and game-winning goals, then weighs them based on when they’re scored (first, second, third or fourth quarter, plus OT), but also in what on-floor situation they’re finished (even-strength, power-play or short-handed goals). The Clutch Kings countdown calculates the league’s most money goal scorer all season long, crowning the king at the conclusion of the current NLL campaign. Click here for a more detailed breakdown of Clutch Kings scoring.
Last week, former National Lacrosse league player & current league media man “Mr. Luxurious” Mitch Belisle pondered how many goals a team typically needs to win a game in today’s NLL.
“In my day of playing, it was always the old adage of, you have to score ten goals, at least, and you have to stop teams from scoring ten,” Belisle said during the league’s Week 11 Coast to Coast segment.
Over the years, coaches have most definitely referenced that double-digit cutoff as a requirement to win (or lose) games in the NLL, especially during Belisle’s career which spanned from 2008 to 2017.
Are they right?
Mitch Belisle & Gary Bining, Boston Blazers (Photo: Larry Palumbo)
Before we get to our updated Clutch Kings countdown (just scroll to the bottom of the page if reading words and looking at numbers hurts your head), we went back to 1987 and right up until last week’s Sunday matinee in Halifax to determine how many goals were & are required to win an NLL game.
First off, although Belisle is maybe most remembered for his obliterating hit on fellow American Jarett Park back in 2009, the defensemen did have a couple of game winners of his own. Two to be exact. One against the Edmonton Rush in 2011 while suiting up for the Boston Blazers (10-7), and another during his final Cup-winning season with the Georgia Swarm, again in Alberta, Belisle icing the Calgary Roughnecks in 2017 (17-8).
Neither game was all that close, so Belisle’s game-securing snipes were buried a bit on the game sheet. So, while the Swarm scored 17 times on the Roughnecks, it actually only took nine goals to win the game and just eight in that earlier one when he played for the Blazers.
The NLL is currently in its 36th season, and although winning teams appear to be scoring more goals than in other recent seasons (Read: The biggest beatings in National Lacrosse League history), the losers seem to be scoring less, often a lot less.
Below are the average amount of goals needed to win a game (AKA: the game-winning goal) during every NLL season ever played.
1987: 13
1988: 13
1989: 11
1990: 11
1991: 13
1992: 13
1993: 13
1994: 11
1995: 12
1996: 12
1997: 13
1998: 13
1999: 13
2000: 13
2001: 12
2002: 13
2003: 12
2004: 11
2005: 12
2006: 11
2007: 11
2008: 11
2009: 11
2010: 10
2011: 10
2012: 11
2013: 11
2014: 11
2015: 11
2016: 11
2017: 11
2018: 11
2019: 11
2020: 10
2022: 10
2023: 11 (Week 12)
As many coaches have been quoted in the past, will scoring ten and keeping the opposition under ten win you a game? Yes and more so no. Simply scoring ten goals would have, on average, got you a win in just four of the NLL’s 36 seasons, all of which have taken place in the league’s modern era.
While high-powered offensive units in places like Toronto, Halifax, Buffalo and Rochester this year have scored 15+ in some of their Ws, their opponent has often not been all that close to their goal count (Read: Why parity in the National Lacrosse League isn’t as prevalent as you think). Below are the Rock’s victories this year when they’ve scored 15 or more:
19-8 vs. Vancouver Warriors
15-7 vs. New York Riptide
17-8 vs. Halifax Thunderbirds
22-14 vs. New York Riptide
16-7 vs. Georgia Swarm
In four of the five above games, the Toronto Rock only allowed single-digit goals against. How have other teams done this year when giving up under ten? There have been 31 games during the 2022-23 regular season where a team was held to single digits. In all but one of those low-scoring affairs, the other team scored more than ten (Colorado 9 over Calgary 8 on January 7th is the only one that lacked a double-digit total). So, of the 32 occurrences where a team has scored nine or less, they’ve won an overwhelming 31 times.
In conclusion, don’t allow too many goals and score as many as you can if you want to win, although this year, eleven will usually do it. Belisle’s guess of 13 would be even safer though.
Evan Downey & Connor Robinson, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Our updated Clutch Kings leaderboard is below, still led by Colorado’s Connor Robinson. With the Mammoth struggling this season, you may be wondering how Robinson ranks #1? Well, get this… Robinson has nine go-ahead, game-tying or game-winning goals combined this year. The rest of the Mammoth roster? They barely beat him with twelve. That’s how.
Clutch Kings: Week 12
CKs Rank. Player (NLL Gs Rank), Team, CKs Points (GTG/GAG/GWG)
1. Connor Robinson (T20), Colorado, 19.00 (3/5/1)
2. Connor Fields (3), Rochester, 18.50 (2/4/2)
3. Dhane Smith (T6), Buffalo, 15.75 (1/5/2)
4. Rob Hellyer (T57), Las Vegas, 13.00 (4/1/2)
5. Randy Staats (T23), Halifax, 12.00 (0/3/2)
6. Joe Resetarits (T15), Philadelphia, 11.75 (1/4/2)
7. Will Malcom (T9), Panther City, 11.25 (4/3/1)
8. Josh Byrne (5), Buffalo, 10.75 (4/4/1)
T9. Robert Church (T9), Saskatchewan, 10.50 (5/3/0)
T9. Chris Boushy (12), Halifax, 10.50 (3/4/0)
T9. Ryan Smith (T18), Rochester, 10.50 (1/5/1)
12. Kieran McArdle (T39), Albany, 10.25 (2/2/1)
13. Jeff Teat (1), New York, 9.50 (2/1/2)
T14. Ryan Keenan (T46), Saskatchewan, 9.25 (3/2/1)
T14. Stephen Keogh (T15), Toronto, 9.25 (1/1/2)
T16. Keegan Bal (T9), Vancouver, 9.00 (4/4/0)
T16. Matt Gilray (T83), Rochester, 9.00 (1/0/3)
Scoring System
First 3 Quarters (GTG/GAG/GWG)
Even-Strength Goal: 1.00/1.50/2.00
Power-Play Goal: 0.50/0.75/1.00
Short-Handed Goal: 2.00/3.00/4.00
Fourth Quarter (GTG/GAG/GWG)
Even-Strength Goal: 2.00/3.00/4.00
Power-Play Goal: 1.00/1.50/2.00
Short-Handed Goal: 4.00/6.00/8.00
Overtime (GWG)
Even-Strength Goal: 6.00
Power-Play Goal: 3.00
Short-Handed Goal: 12.00