2024 NLL Playoff Previewpalooza
The 2024 National Lacrosse League Playoffs kick off with their quarterfinal round this weekend. While the league’s unified standings shook things up a lot this season, this year’s first round pits old East & West Conference foes in anything-can-happen-single-elimination matches that rarely disappoint. Here are this year’s highly anticipated QF games (click the links for tickets):
Saturday, April 27, 2024
(1) Toronto Rock vs. (8) Rochester Knighthawks
4:30pm ET, FirstOntario Centre (Hamilton, ON)
(4) Buffalo Bandits vs. (5) Georgia Swarm
7pm ET, KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)
(2) San Diego Seals vs. (7) Panther City Lacrosse Club
10pm ET, Pechanga Arena (San Diego, CA)
Sunday, April 28, 2024
(3) Albany FireWolves vs. (6) Halifax Thunderbirds
3pm ET, MVP Arena (Albany, NY)
Below, we preview each of this year’s final eight teams’ chances of lifting the NLL Cup in late May: why they’ll win and why they won’t. Plus, The Lax Mag year-end award winner announcements started earlier this week when we name Buffalo’s Josh Byrne 2024’s most clutch goal scorer. Click here for a full rundown of our annual NLL awards.
Nick Rose, Toronto Rock (Photo: Ryan McCullough)
(1) Toronto Rock
Why they’ll win
Because since December 1, there has been no more dominant, focussed, consistent, composed or complete a team as the Toronto Rock. While the Rock have been a strong regular season team in recent years (41-13 over last three years), their success this season was built on something different than past ones: overcoming adversity. During the 2022 and 2023 playoffs, both the Colorado Mammoth and Buffalo Bandits, respectively, had to conquer considerable injury-related casualties en route to their Cup-winning campaign. As we outlined in recent weeks (and coincidently so did TSN, to the exact same super-granule details), few if any teams dealt with the same roster-crippling results as Toronto, who have had the following players on their IR or PUP: Challen Rogers, Tom Schreiber, Chris Corbeil, Mitch de Snoo, Dan Craig, Josh Jubenville, TD Ierlan, Phil Mazzuca, Brandon Slade, Jordan McKenna, Tyler Hendrycks, and of course, Latrell Harris, who was out for the year long before the season even started (watch is recovery here). They’ll get the Rochester Knighthawks this Saturday (4:30pm ET, FirstOntario Centre), a team they wrecked 13-6 a few weeks ago in their one and only meeting this year.
Why they won’t
Because unlike their game against Rochester on April 13, they’ll likely be seeing starting stopper Rylan Hartley for a full 60 minutes this time around. If the Knighthawks’ netminder plays anywhere near as good as he did this past weekend, that could prove problematic for the Rock. On the IR himself for a majority of the season, Hartley had not fully returned to full-time minutes when Toronto and Rochester last met, but he actually looked pretty damn good. Playing just over half an hour in relief of Riley Hutchcraft, Hartley allowed just three goals and finished with a team- and game-leading 5.69 GAA and .855 save percentage.
Austin Staats, San Diego Seals (Photo: WM Photography)
(2) San Diego Seals
Why they’ll win
Because their offense can hang with anyone, their defense is quietly one of the best in the league, and with Brodie Merrill back, everyone is probably just a bit more motivated to make this happen. Getting the likes of Curtis Dickson and Danny Logan back in the mix for their stretch drive and now playoffs is a big plus too – Dickson for is scoring and experience, Logan as a second to Trevor Baptiste at the dot, but for so much more defensively too. While the Seals finished second to the Rock, they’ll have home floor advantage against everyone else. San Diego’s 15-3 regular season record at Pechanga Arena is tied for the best home record over the last two years. While many will point to his youth and inexperience in the playoffs as a problem, 21-year-old goalie Chris Origlieri has not only seamlessly taken over San Diego’s starter spot, statistically speaking, he was one of 2024’s top tendies. The team that has knocked them out of the playoffs the last two years, the Colorado Mammoth, didn’t make it this year, which honestly, is one less monkey on their backs they’ll have to worry about bucking off.
Why they won’t
Because the playoffs have been kryptonite for the Seals so far. The fact that they qualified for the league’s second season four times in four full seasons since forming the franchise is extremely impressive, but once there, San Diego has had little success. As mentioned above, they’ve thrived at home in recent years during the regular season, but are just 1-4 at Pechanga during the playoffs. While Christian Del Bianco won the 2019 NLL Cup with Calgary a few months before his 22nd birthday, rarely do goalies as young as Origlieri (21) take their team to a title. Below are the ages of the last 15 Cup-winning starters, one of which is Origlieri’s backup, Mike Poulin, who played just 28 minutes and 30 seconds this season after coming out of retirement.
2007 Pat O’Toole (Rochester) 35
2008 Mike Thompson* (Buffalo) 31
2009 Matt King (Calgary) 27
2010 Tyler Richards (Washington) 23
2011 Bob Watson (Toronto) 41
2012 Matt Vinc (Rochester) 30
2013 Matt Vinc (Rochester) 31
2014 Matt Vinc (Rochester) 32
2015 Aaron Bold (Edmonton) 30
2016 Aron Bold (Saskatchewan) 31
2017 Mike Poulin (Georgia) 31
2018 Evan Kirk (Saskatchewan) 30
2019 Christian Del Bianco (Calgary) 21
2022 Dillon Ward (Colorado) 31
2023 Matt Vinc (Buffalo) 40
*Played majority of minutes while sharing the crease with Kenny Montour, who was 28 at the time.
Doug Jamieson, Albany FireWolves (Photo: WM Photography)
(3) Albany FireWolves
Why they’ll win
Because even though they’re the three seed, no one thinks they have a chance against Halifax on Sunday. In our IG poll, the Thunderbirds took 57% of the vote when we asked who’d win this weekend. On Twitter, we wondered what Top 4 seed was most likely to lose in the quarters, and Albany garnered 65% of those votes. Any betting odds we looked up, have Halifax favoured. Even @NLL it going against the FireWolves. So, why is this good? When Albany was questioned by seemingly everyone at the start of the season, they were playing their best lacrosse of the year, turning your doubts into dominant dubs. They beat the Thunderbirds earlier this year, scoring four goals in transition to Halifax’s one. A typical Doug Jamieson start between the pipes (he’s gotta be a GOTY Finalist lock, right?) and again winning the two-way game would likely be enough to get by the team everyone says they’re supposed to lose to on Sunday. The Albany versus Everyone formula was fire for 12 games (10-2), and certainly seems to have been sparked again.
Why they won’t
We’ve mentioned it many, many, many times over the past three years, but NLL Cup winners almost always have a .500 or better record over the last month of the regular season. They Albany FireWolves, who started the season 6-0, were not .500 over the final four weeks of the season, not even close. Over the last month, the fading FireWolves were 1-3, and just 1-5 over the last six weeks. Their last win over a 2024 playoff team? February 24. None of this screams eventual Cup winner, but this is the NLL, so you never know.
Chase Fraser, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)
(4) Buffalo Bandits
Why they’ll win
Because the defending champions are playing their most dominant lacrosse when it matters most, this during a season they’ve had to overcome significant injury-related adversity and were often counted out by many, including their own fanbase (especially on Facebook, where the comments were at time criminal). This was not the typical Buffalo Bandits regular season, and as a follow up to last year’s Cup win, that might be a good thing. While his play away from centre could obviously need some cleaning up (we know, he only started his first-ever NLL season in early March), the confidence Connor Farrell has provided the team on draws has made a decided difference to their game-day vibe. Ditto for the addition of Paul Dawson at the trade deadline, whose defensive leadership, shot-blocking ability (finished third in the NLL with 25 blocked shots), and Cup-winning experience are exactly what the Bandits needed during a year their own-end was banged up badly. Oh right, also… Dhane Smith, Josh Byrne, Matt Vinc, Steve Priolo, Nick Weiss, Ian MacKay, Chase Fraser, Chris Cloutier, Tehoka Nanticoke, Kyle Buchanan, etc. Honestly, turn in your Bandits fan club card if you don’t think this team is worthy of a repeat. Trust, no one wants to run into them over the next month.
Why they won’t
Because even though they ramped up their record over the last two months of the season, it was mostly against non-playoff teams, some playing pretty poorly. Since March 1, Buffalo has played only two of this year’s postseason teams (Toronto and Panther City, 1-1) and then went 5-1 against Vancouver (the one L), Saskatchewan, Philadelphia, Colorado, Calgary and Las Vegas. The Cup-capable confidence built during that successful stretch is obviously crucial, but were they tested enough against the league’s best leading into the playoffs? They’ll host Georgia on Saturday (7pm ET, KeyBank Center), a team that has already beat them this year in front of nearly 17K in Banditland.
Lyle Thompson, Georgia Swarm (Photo: Kyle Hess)
(5) Georgia Swarm
Why they’ll win
Because while most of the media (including us) have been drooling over other storylines this season, the Georgia Swarm have quietly put together arguably their strongest regular season since their dominant 2017-2019 run (36-18 regular season record, won the 2017 NLL Cup) and have either beaten or were incredibly competitive in losses against all of this year’s playoff teams. Their offense is as clutch as they come, Andrew Kew, Seth Oakes and Shayne Jackson landing on our season-ending Clutch Kings leaderboard earlier this week (that means they score more often when it matters most). They were one of only five teams to allow under 200 goals during the regular season, largely due to an athletic and agile defensive unit that doesn’t get talked about nearly enough (again, that includes us).
Why they won’t
Because the Swarm have not won a playoff game since their Cup win in 2017 (over 2,500 days ago) and open their postseason against a team that has won eleven times in the playoffs since then, which included last year’s title-taking 5-1 run. While Brett Dobson has had some brilliant moments between the pipes this year (also, statistically, he had an almost identical season to Buffalo’s Matt Vinc), like previously mentioned (see Seals’ why they won’t above), goalies under 25 rarely take their team to the top in this league, although it has happened. They’ve owned a .500 or worse record since late February, and saw a short swing of momentum stopped by Rochester during the final weekend of the season, while the brimming-with-confidence Bandits have experienced the opposite.
Warren Hill, Halifax Thunderbirds (Photo: Jake Whiting)
(6) Halifax Thunderbirds
Why they’ll win
Because backstop Warren Hill is coming off what was maybe his best full season in the league, their offense - as always - is loaded with guys that can go off, their defense is a pain in the ass to play against, Jake Withers is slaying at centre (and elsewhere), and their special teams are strong. On paper, the Thunderbirds should contend for the Cup. They also get the team everyone seems to feel won’t move past the first round no matter who they play, the Albany Attack, who had just a horrific conclusion to a campaign that started off so spectacularly strong. Randy Staats is back for their run, the former Cup winner (Georgia Swarm, 2017) missing half of the year coming on and off the IR. His points-per-game average would have had him closing in on a potential 100-point season this year, plus Staats led the Swarm in scoring the year they won it all.
Why they won’t
Because since making an appearance in the 2018 NLL Finals (as Rochester Knighthawks 1.0), they have not won a single playoff game since. Although it happened back in early January, they are 0-1 against Albany this year, and that loss highlighted an eventual problematic trend: losing leads and later results in the second half. No team has given away games late at the rate the Thunderbirds did this year, Halifax having issues throughout 2024 sealing the deal on decisions that looked like locks at halftime. In addition to Albany, most of this year’s playoff pool have offensive presses with serious pace & pop, and the Thunderbirds at times have struggled slowing down the opposition’s transition. Even though the FireWolves struggled to score much on the man-up this year, Halifax has to stay out of the box (another issue area for them). While Albany’s awful results over the final six weeks of the regular season might have made them a desirable opening-round opponent, the Thunderbirds are a team Glenn Clark and Co. must like how they match up against in many ways.
Phil Caputo, Panther City Lacrosse Club (Photo: Colleen Shaw)
(7) Panther City Lacrosse Club
Why they’ll win
Because each year they seem to take another step, and even though Panther City finished one win shy of last year’s record-setting ten, this year’s roster seems more ready for a Cup run than they were a season ago. They also have a bit of a 2022-2023 Colorado Mammoth vibe going: a lower-ranked seed with a lot of clutch goal scorers (PCLC placed three players within our Top 7 Clutch Kings at the end of the regular season) led by a head coach, who as a player, knew what it took to win it all (Tracey Kelusky playing the Pat Coyle role). Goalie Nick Damude, who for the second straight season was a Top 5 goalie in the NLL (believe it), had one of his best games in PCLC’s OT loss to San Diego back on March 1. In fact, the 69 shots Damude faced and 59 saves made versus the Seals that night were the highest single-game totals of any goalie all season. Also important, Panther City’s transition game was a helluva lot better in the second half of the season, Josh Medeiros specially looking more like the breakout threat he was last year over the team’s last several games this year.
Why the won’t
Because losing Jonathan Donville, one of this year’s most clutch scorers, to an upper body injury just days before their quarterfinal match against San Diego is significant (and very much Mammoth like, the team losing leading point producer Ryan Lee early in the playoffs during 2022’s unlikely Cup win). While Panther City and San Diego have yet to see each other in the playoffs, the Seals lead the team’s all-time regular season series 6-1, including this year’s 2-0 sweep. This will be only the second playoffs PCLC has qualified for, and second postseason game ever. Experience isn’t on their side, clearly. When was the last time a third-year team won the Cup with the exact same record-related story? You thought we were going to say never, right? It was Kelusky and the Calgary Roughnecks in 2004.
Rylan Hartley, Rochester Knighthawks (Photo: Christian Bender)
(8) Rochester Knighthawks
Why they’ll win
Because the Knighthawks are finally healthy, heating up, and like playoff party-crashing Colorado over the past two postseasons, they are the underdog seemingly no one thinks can pull this off. Although we’ve had him as one of the top ranked players all season long (has ranked no lower then fifth in our year-long Top 30 Player Rankings), after last weekend’s outstanding performance to propel Rochester into the playoffs, everyone else is finally realizing that Connor Fields is most definitely MVP material that is at his best when a win is needed most. The Knighthawks got nailed with a season-high 25 PIMs in their loss to the Rock last month, which also led to four power-play goals against. During their season-ending double against Georgia and Philadelphia last weekend, Rochester gave up just one PPG over 120 minutes. And if you think those previously mentioned half-game stats (see Toronto’s why they won’t way above) from Rylan Hartley versus the Rock were a fluke, check out how he did against Toronto in Week 2 (7.00 GAA, .877 SV%) and Week 14 (8.00 GAA, .873 SV%) last year.
Why they won’t
Because if Toronto can leash Fields like they did last month (1G, 2A in arguably is worst game of the year), even with secondary scoring support, it’s difficult to see Rochester win in that scenario. In games Fields was held to under a hat-trick this year, Rochester went just 1-5. Flip that and the Knighthawks were 5-1 in matches Fields produced more than a hatty. When things are going well, one of Rochester’s greatest assets is their ability to run the opposition ragged on their offensive press (and yes, we know their two-way scoring touch is way down this year), something the Rock counter and slow down better than arguably any other team in the league. In Toronto’s three losses this year (Buffalo x2, Calgary), the opposition produced on the press. If the Knighthawks do find a way to figure out the Rock on Saturday, it will likely come down to goaltending (shocking, we know) and success on the press.