2023 NLL Cup Finals: Why they’ll win and why they won’t
The 2023 NLL Cup Finals begin on Saturday, May 27 when the Buffalo Bandits host Game 1 of the highly anticipated series against the Colorado Mammoth (KeyBank Center, 7pm ET). Game 2 takes place just two days later on Monday, May 29 in Denver (Ball Arena, 4pm ET).
The East vs. West finale is a rematch of last year’s finals when the Mammoth stunned the favoured Bandits to take the title two games to one. It’s only the fifth time in league history that the finals see a rematch, with the reigning champions going 2-2 a year later - the 1993 Buffalo Bandits (over Philadelphia) & 2000 Toronto Rock (over Rochester) are the only ones to beat the same team for the Cup twice in two seasons.
Kyle Buchanan, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Ben Green)
A year later, Buffalo & Colorado come into the final in almost identical positions: the regular-season champion Bandits against the much-lower seeded Mammoth. While some of this series’ story will remain the same, other aspects most definitely will not.
In The Lax Mag’s NLL Cup Finals preview, we’ll tell you why these teams will win, but also why they won’t.
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NLL Cup Finals
Best-of-three series
E1 Buffalo Bandits vs. W4 Colorado Mammoth
Game 1: Saturday, May 27, 7pm ET KeyBank Centre
Game 2: Monday, May 29, 4pm ET Ball Arena
Game 3: Saturday, June 3, 7:30pm ET KeyBank Centre (if necessary)
Captain Steve Priolo, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)
Why Buffalo will win
Although the Bandits walked through the first two rounds of this year’s playoffs with extreme & almost record-breaking ease, through most of this year’s regular season, Buffalo dealt with loads of adversity, largely due to injury issues. Josh Byrne, Chase Fraser, Chris Cloutier, Tehoka Nanticoke and others all missed serious stretches, requiring the Bandits to have players step up significantly, as well as have their depth tested early & often. To come out of that co-leading the league with a 14-4 record is kind of incredible. It’s a backstory this team has never really built from during recent seasons that concluded in the NLL Cup Finals, where the Bandits are 0-3 since 2016. They are very much the favourites, yet again, have an almost identical roster to last year, and were killers during East Conference playoff games, but it was their resiliency during the regular season that likely has Buffalo more mentally prepared than in past promising years. Even with key contributors listed as questionable heading into Saturday night’s Game 1 (Byrne, Fraser, Adam Bomberry and Ethan O’Connor), they’ve showed this season they’re ready no matter who’s in their lineup.
Dillon Ward & John Tavares (Photo: Bill Wippert)
Last year, after their Game 3 loss in the final, Buffalo Head Coach John Tavares said, “We just can’t find a way to win in the championship game…They (Bandits players) had a good year, unfortunately only one team can win. Keep your head up, we’ll keep plugging away, keep finding a way to improve, stick together and understand what it takes to win a championship. Colorado showed us.”
Between last year’s playoffs & this year’s regular season, it’s time to see what the Bandits have learned through loss & adversity.
Why Buffalo won’t well
Well, Colorado has their number, especially in the finals. The two titles the Mammoth have won were both against the Bandits, including of course last year’s Cup. With Buffalo sporting a pretty fit roster in mid-March this year, Colorado still beat them 13-8, and that was with the Mammoth coming off a miserable 1-4 run. Including last year’s three Cup games and this year’s regular season loss, Colorado keeper Dillon Ward has held Buffalo’s usually mighty offense to just 8 goals three times (all Mammoth wins). In those three losses, the Bandits’ offensive leaders, Dhane Smith & Josh Byrne, are averaging just two goals combined per outing. Based on their recent results against Colorado, it feels unlikely Buffalo will win a low-scoring series against Ward, who just held Calgary to two 7-goal games in their WCF’s Ws.
Captain Robert Hope, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Isaiah J. Downing)
Why Colorado will win
With no disrespect to the rest of their roster, who we’ve highlighted often this year (especially their consistently clutch offense), the Mammoth aren’t winning a second straight Cup unless Dillon Ward is at his absolute best between the pipes. Lucky for them, over the past two years, Ward has saved his best stuff for when it matters most. During the last several seasons in Denver, even before these recent playoff runs, the team rarely wins if Ward has an off night. While Buffalo’s Matt Vinc leads the sexy-stopper stats during this year’s playoffs (first in GAA & SV%), it’s Ward that has been tested (leads playoffs in minutes played & shots seen) & succeeded (leads playoffs in saves) more often due to the more competitive play in the West Conference Finals versus what went down in the East.
Plus, the team has thrived beyond belief in an underdog role. Proof: our tweet below. They’ve also faced much of the same adversities via injuries as the Bandits. Proof: our tweet even further below.
Why Colorado won’t win
Because in those three wins over Buffalo during the past two seasons, transitional point production has been important for Colorado, and the Bandits are giving up very little on the offensive press during this year’s playoffs (and usually during the regular season too). Outside of some second-half points allowed in Game 2 against the Rock (with a win well in hand), Buffalo kept two of the best two-way teams in the league extremely quiet. In the quarters, Rochester had all of one assist from a non-forward versus Buffalo. Challen Rogers’ hat-trick in Game 1 of the ECFs was scored in set offensive situations. The only real back-breaking press goal Buffalo has allowed all playoffs was Phil Mazzuca’s early game-tying goal in Game 2. Joey Cupido was a critical two-way force for the Mammoth during last year’s final, but he’ll be unavailable this year due to injury. While defenders Warren Jeffrey & Jordan Gilles have popped in some pivotal press goals, there’s been little else past the pair. With the way the Bandits are playing presently, it’s going to be extremely difficult for the Mammoth to muster much coming out of their own end.