2023 Minto Cup Preview
The 2023 Minto Cup takes place at Bill Hunter Arena in Edmonton, Alberta from August 20-27.
With the Burlington Blaze upsetting the Orangeville Northmen in the OJLL Finals earlier this week, this year’s Minto final four is finally fully locked in: the Blaze (OJLL Champions), the Coquitlam Adanacs (BCJALL Champions), the Edmonton Miners (host team + RMLL Champions) and the Calgary Mountaineers (host league’s second entry + RMLL runners up).
Today, we’ll drop our final National Junior Rankings of the season – a list the Northmen had been #1 on for ten straight weeks – and also take a closer look at this year’s Minto finalists: why they’ll win & why they won’t.
Burlington Blaze
Why they’ll win
Because on paper, as battered & bruised as most players are, the Blaze are playing the best lacrosse of any team in the country right now and took down the previously unbeaten Northmen in impressive fashion. In fact, Burlington’s 4-2 series win over Orangeville is the first time in Canadian Junior A history (well, going back to 1937 when the Minto became a Junior-aged trophy) that a league’s undefeated regular season team was eliminated in their provincial playoffs and failed to make the Minto. That’s a pretty significant results-based statement for a team to make. You could see the Blaze continue to build confidence as their series against the Northmen progressed, the team peaking at the absolute perfect time. Also, if Deacan Knott (Philadelphia Wings) continues to stop shots like he has, Burlington is taking the title, guaranteed.
Why they won’t
During our in-depth look at past Minto winners last year (an article that was actually sparked by Burlington’s early postseason success last summer), we learned a few things. Provincial #1 seeds win the Minto at an overwhelmingly high rate (47 of the last 61 Minto Cups have been won by a #1 seed). The Blaze finished six wins behind the Northmen for second place in Ontario, so not #1. Also, teams going to their first-ever Minto, which Burlington is about to do, rarely come away with the Cup. When was the last time a team made their first trip to the tournament (or series for many years before the modern era’s final-four format) and also won the Cup? It was actually the 1993 Northmen, who coincidently, finished second during that year’s OJLL regular season, later upsetting a strong St. Catharines Athletics side (21-1 during regular season) in the playoffs and then sweeping Coquitlam in the Minto. We’ve filed this under “Why they won’t,” but there’s a whole lot of similarities from that special 1993 season and this summer.
Coquitlam Adanacs
Why they’ll win
Because while everyone has been drooling over this history-making runs by Burlington & Orangeville in Ontario, Coquitlam has quietly put together an almost equally dominant season in British Columbia. Their 25-4 full-season record gives them a winning percentage (.862) that is just a smidge behind what the Northmen did (.879) this year. Most felt a loaded Victoria Shamrocks lineup would not only test them but potentially eliminate the Adanacs in the BCJALL Finals. Not even close. Their defensively dominant, athletic and elusive approach from their own-end out will be difficult for any of the other three teams to counter consistently, while the late-season additions of Cody Malawsky (University of Denver) & Austin Ducommun (Towson University) have made Coquitlam a force up front too. The pieces are all there. The Adanacs, who haven’t played since August 5, just have to put them altogether when it matters most.
Why they won’t
Was this team tested enough during the season? We’re not questioning the Adanacs’ heart, hustle or determination, but going through what the Blaze did to qualify for this year’s Minto most definitely puts you in an elevated psychological state that sends your confidence skyrocketing. Coquitlam mostly owned the BCJALL regular season, walked through the Port Coquitlam Saints in the first round of the playoffs, and then made relatively short work of Victoria in the finals. This team is no doubt absurdly good, but do the quality of their results match what the Blaze have bled so far this summer? Consider this…
"We walked by their locker room in the corridor and saw after they won they were too beat up to really enjoy it and savor the victory at that moment," said Wayne Gretzky after his Edmonton Oilers lost the 1983 Stanley Cup Finals to the battle-tested New York Islanders. "We were able to walk out of their pretty much scot free. We had so much respect for the Islanders players and the Islanders teams that we learned immediately you have to take it to another level in order to win a Stanley Cup.”
Are this year’s Adanacs the Oilers or the Islanders? We’ll find out soon enough.
Edmonton Miners
Why they’ll win
Because for the first time probably ever, an RMLL team has more Minto Cup experience on their roster than Ontario’s & British Columbia’s Cup-contending clubs combined. Sure, the 2022 Edmonton Miners came about as close as you can come to winning a Minto without leaving with the trophy, but that still most certainly counts for something. Their history-making run a year ago provided the Miners with invaluable experience while going toe-to-toe with Canada’s best (and with so much more success than any Alberta team ever before them), but it also gave their buds a preview of what drinking (non-alcoholic bevvies if anyone from the NCAA is reading this) from the Minto Cup might actually taste like. Just ask Gretzky how important that is (scroll up if you’re skipping sections). We saw how motivated Mathieu Gautier (Panther City Lacrosse Club) and others were last year. While most still have Burlington & Coquitlam ranked ahead of Edmonton, both of those teams lack the intangibles the Miners have going into this year’s Minto (including home-floor advantage in every game), and that might just be enough to win them one more game than they did at last year’s national tournament.
Why they won’t
Teams rarely win the Minto in their home area anymore. Kinda crazy, but it’s totally true. Part of that is due to host provinces not always automatically entering their host city’s club (like last year in Brampton). Since 2003, when Lacrosse Canada ditched a two-team final series for a four-team tourney, teams playing the Minto at their home arena have won just three times: the Burnaby Lakers (2004), the Coquitlam Adanacs (2010) and the Six Nations Arrows (2015). Also, and we feel bad for bringing this up after what almost happened last year, but obviously an RMLL team has still yet to capture a Minto Cup. Until that happens, the rest of Canada will continue to doubt their ability to win it all.
Calgary Mountaineers
Why they’ll win
Because the Cup-winning expectations outside of their own locker room are so low, they can kinda play the perfect underdog role like the Miners shocked Canada doing last year. Yes, they’re runners up from a league that has still yet to win their first Minto after two decades of trying, but this Mounties team was one of the hotter clubs anywhere in Canada from the middle of June and onward. Calgary knocked off a very good Raiders team in the first round of the RMLL playoffs, and then pushed the Miners to Game 5 in their best-of-five series, albeit a L. They Mountaineers are well coached, aren’t afraid to push the pace in transition, and have a capable core up front led by the likes of Nathan Lam (University of Indianapolis), Riley Isaacs (Simon Fraser University) and Lukas Olsson (University of Richmond). That talented trio finished first, second and third respectively in the RMLL’s post-season scoring charts. The contributions of Davis Dame will also play a pivotal role if the team hopes to have any success in Edmonton. Dame was called on to play for last year’s Miners, and impressed immensely throughout that tournament.
Why they won’t
Only four provincial three seeds (based on regular season standings) have ever won the Minto Cup, and obviously none have ever come from Alberta. In fact, the only seeds lower than a one or two that won the title have all come from Ontario. Although they impressed mightily during the second half of their season, Calgary’s .500 record across the regular season & playoffs aren’t the type of results you’ll see on many if any past Minto winners’ resumes. Since that summer of 2003 when the Minto format was flipped to what we have today, how many provincial runners up (or even a lower seeded host) have won the Cup? It’s happened just once, when the 2006 Shawn Evans-led Peterborough Lakers were not only runners up but the lowest seed to ever win the title (fifth), defeating the OJLL Champion Six Nations Arrows in the event’s final, which was played at the Iroquois Lacrosse Arena. Calgary has the chance to pretty much repeat that performance this year, and like the Lakers, they’ll need to be at their nearly-perfect best in order to pull it off. Doable? Did you think Edmonton would come two goals shy of winning last year’s Minto? You tell them it’s not doable and see how these motivated Mountaineers respond.
National Junior Rankings
1. (2) Burlington Blaze (OJLL) 14-6 (11-3)
2. (3) Coquitlam Adanacs (BCJALL) 18-3 (7-1)
3. (4) Edmonton Miners (RMLL) 10-5 (7-2)
4. (5) Calgary Mountaineers (RMLL) 7-7-1 (6-6)
5. (1) Orangeville Northmen (OJLL) 20-0 (9-4)*
6. (5) Victoria Shamrocks (BCJALL) 15-6 (4-4)*
7. (6) Mimico Mountaineers (OJLL) 13-7 (4-4)*
8. (7) Toronto Beaches (OJLL) 12-8 (3-5)*
9. (9) Raiders Lacrosse Club (RMLL) 10-5 (3-4)*
10. (10) Nanaimo Timbermen (BCJALL) 14-7 (0-3)*
11. (11) Oakville Buzz (OJLL) 13-7 (1-3)*
12. (12) Whitby Warriors (OJLL) 9-11 (0-3)*
13. (13) St. Catharines Athletics (OJLL) 8-13 (0-3)*
14. (14) Port Coquitlam Saints (BCJALL) 10-10-1 (0-3)*
15. (15) Six Nations Arrows (OJLL) 7-13 (0-3)*
16. (16) Brampton Excelsiors (OJLL) 7-13*
17. (17) Burnaby Lakers (BCJALL) 9-12*
18. (18) New Westminster Salmonbellies (BCJALL) 6-15*
19. (19) Delta Islanders (BCJALL) 6-15*
20. (20) Kitchener-Waterloo Lacrosse Club (OJLL) 3-17*
21. (21) Peterborough Lakers (OJLL) 4-16*
22. (22) Langley Thunder (BCJALL) 5-15-1*
23. (23) Saskatchewan SWAT (RMLL) 2-12-1 (0-4)*
*Eliminated