2023 Minto Cup Finals Preview: Burlington Blaze versus Coquitlam Adanacs
Even with two completely different teams competing, this year’s Minto Cup Final is very much like last year’s best-of-three series between the Edmonton Miners and eventual Cup clinchers, the Whitby Warriors.
Why? Well…
The Burlington Blaze: A club that’s never come close to making it this far, plus are also are on the verge of updating Junior A record books going back a bit – the Miners.
The Coquitlam Adanacs: A former Cup-winning club that has experienced significant recent success at this tournament, one of only a handful of teams to win the title over the past two decades – so, the Warriors.
As different as their past and 2023 playoff journeys have been, Canada’s last two standing teams have many similarities as well.
In The Lax Mag’s 2023 Minto Cup Finals Preview (check our still-pertinent tourney preview here) we highlight some of the key criteria that should determine who lifts Lord Minto’s Cup at some point this weekend.
Minto Cup Finals Schedule
All games played at Bill Hunter Arena. PPV available through HNLive.ca.
Game 1: Friday, August 25, 7pm MT
Game 2: Saturday, August 26, 7pm MT
*Game 3: Sunday, August 27, 7pm MT
*If necessary
Minto Cup Finals Preview
Goaltending
Burlington’s Deacan Knott (Philadelphia Wings) and Coquitlam’s Jack Kask (Marquette University) have easily been the two most consistent, composed and Cup-worthy keepers during their provincial playoffs and then this past week in Edmonton.
They share an identical 7.00 GAA and their save percentages are pretty close too (Knott .874 & Kask .845). The pair have played every possible minute for their clubs at the Minto (Update: Although not reflected in the official game stats, The Lax Mag has confirmed that Thomas Ungarno played part of the semifinal game’s third period), while Alberta’s two entries saw a total of five goalies eat up minutes since Monday. Many who’ve been watching the tourney have noted the gap between the goalies this year, so it’s no surprise the two best backstops will be meeting in the Minto Cup Finals starting Friday.
The Blaze have been outshot in all three games they’ve played and own a -18 shot differential so far, which is kind of hard to believe considering how loaded the back end of their lineup is. That heightened trust in Knott’s net-minding abilities is allowing the Blaze to either get up the floor faster and/or hurry their defenders off to allow that potent offensive punch to set up ASAP.
Kask is essentially giving his team the same support. He leads all goalies with three assists in four starts (only one other goalie even has a single helper so far), Kask’s outlet allowing Coquitlam to transition up floor quicker than most. The Adanac’s dynamic defense-first players lead the Minto in point production, which can be partly credited to an always alert Kask.
Special Teams
While his delivery has likely ruffled some feathers (and increased our Instagram impressions), former Miner & current Minto commentator Ethan Forgrave’s criticisms of the negative in-game impact this year’s officials have had was, well, been very valid.
Consider this… Last year’s Minto Cup went a full ten games with the Final needing a Game 3 to be decide the series winner. A total of 33 PPGs were scored across those ten contests. Coming out of Wednesday’s semifinal match (so, seven games) we’ve already seen 38 man-up goals scored.
Are player’s just producing at a higher man-up rate during this year’s tournament? Not really.
This year’s we’re seeing five more minutes of PIMs called a game versus 2022, and seemingly at the most critical of times during many matches.
At last year’s Minto, 18% of goals came in power-play situations. This year? 30%.
Co-leading the Minto with four PPGs a piece are Burlington’s Alex Marinier (Ohio State University) & Braedon Saris (Princeton University). Marinier had four man-up goals total during 14 OJLL postseason games for the Blaze, so clearly that per-game stat has spiked since arriving in Edmonton.
Burlington’s 3.33 PPG/game presently leads the tourney.
No teams in the tournament are averaging more PIMs per outing than this year’s final two, both just a few decimal points away from 15 total minutes severed in the sin bin each game. While most would prefer to see a Minto decided with two goalies and ten runners on the floor for a majority of 60 minutes, that might not be the case this year.
Previous Encounter
What can these two team’s round-robin game tell us about who might win this year’s Minto? Honestly, very little.
Not to harp on penalty calling, but an above-average amount of PIMs were registered during Burlington’s & Coquitlam’s RR game in the first two periods, crushing either club’s chance to build any flow, rhythm and even-strength stability.
2002s
This year is the final season of Junior A eligibility for players born in 2002. Those players are either already 21 or will be by December 31. Although not all are seeing full-time minutes - some, like Coltrane Tyson (University of Massachusetts), are unfortunately injured - the Blaze have a lot of 2002s on their roster. While the club itself obviously lacks Minto minutes with this year’s Burlington team being the first ever to qualify for the tournament (series previously), they do have a pretty stacked graduating class. A total of 14 final-year players are on Burlington’s submitted Minto roster. In comparison, Coquitlam has six 21-year olds listed on their full lineup. Watch for those graduating guys to elevate their game even further over the next three days.
Coquitlam vs. Burlington, Round Robin (Photo: GOAT Sports Photography)
X Factors
We know players like Saris, Marinier, Stuart Phillips (Johns Hopkins University) and Cody Malawsky (Denver University) will get their looks and produce, but two slightly less likely players may have an equally significant goal-scoring impact this weekend.
Picked up by Coquitlam from New Westminster at the BCJALL trade deadline, Austin Ducommen (Towson University) was a valuable asset to the team and seemed to really come alive during the playoffs. Although he’s been involved on the floor, Ducommen’s point production has slipped some during the Minto. With a goal against Burlington in that round-robin game and tons of talent, don’t be surprised to see his name on the score sheet a bit more often during this final series. Also, Coquitlam forward Jaxon Dillon (St. Bonaventure University) was the only Adanac to put two past Deacan in that mid-week match and obviously has the ability to go off often. If Phillips or Malawsky get locked up, Dillon has proven plenty of times he can deliver.
Another pre-deadline day pickup (through a really beneficial trade with Peterborough), Zach Thompson (Newberry College) has been a steady presence in Burlington’s offense, his value arguably even higher here in Edmonton. Averaging under a goal/game during the OJLL playoffs, Thompson already has five in three for the Blaze at Bill Hunter Arena, which includes a hat-trick against… the Adanacs.
Will Burlington be the first team since the 1993 Orangeville Northmen to win a Minto during their first trip to the national final (and actually beat the Adanacs 30 years ago to do so) or will Coquitlam continue their streak of recent success (especially in Alberta, where they won it in 2018) and capture their fourth Cup?