The Colorado Mammoth have been the underdog (AKA: lower seed) in every game they’ve played during this year’s postseason, most counting them out when Ryan Lee was sidelined for a likely lengthy stretch too (lower body).

Unquestionably, the majority see them losing in this year’s NLL Finals against the Buffalo Bandits, who topped the standings during the regular season and have yet to lose during the playoffs. The Bandits were #1 in The Lax Mag’s NLL Power Rankings for 18 of 22 regular-season weeks, so their high-level hype is certainly supported by success.

As we did with the East Conference and West Conference Finals, The Lax Mag broke down the 2022 NLL Finals in eleven key categories: goaltending, defense, offense, transition, power play, penalty kill, faceoffs, coaching, intangibles, experience and recent runs.

Who get’s the overall edge going into this highly anticipated Cup-clinching clash? Keep reading…

Game 1: Colorado at Buffalo, KeyBank Center
Saturday, June 4, 2022, 7:30pm ET

Game 2: Buffalo at Colorado, Ball Arena
Saturday, June 11, 2022, 9pm ET

*Game 3: Colorado at Buffalo, KeyBank Center
Saturday, June 18, 2022, 7:30pm ET

*if necessary

Matt Vinc, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Michael Hetzel)

Goaltending

We performed a thorough review of this year’s top three goalies from the regular season, which included both Buffalo’s Matt Vinc and Colorado’s Dillon Ward. We gave Vinc the Goalie-of-the-Year nod, but how have this year’s final two tendies faired during the 2022 playoffs? With an extra 60 due to last week’s Game 3 in San Diego (Buffalo swept Toronto in their last series), Ward leads the league in saves (154 vs. Vinc’s 128), but Vinc tops him in save percentage (.805 vs. .762) and GAA (10.33 vs. 11.88). Advantage: Buffalo Bandits, who also benefit greatly from their goalies’ post-season and Cup-winning experience. After two games Vinc will tie John Tavares for most playoff GPs (38). If this series goes the distance, he’ll set a new standard.

Defense

Outside of an uncharacteristically high Game 1 goal scoring spectacular against the Toronto Rock in the East Finals, the Bandits defense held the Albany FireWolves to just 5 goals in the first round, plus kept the Rock to just 9 in Game 2. Their regular season goals against (185) trailed just Toronto (166) and the San Diego Seals (183). Bryce Sweeting, who spent three seasons with the Mammoth, has been on Buffalo’s IR since just before the Toronto series started. He owned the NLL’s second highest blocked shots total (21), and even though the Bandits are booming, his absence has left a bigger dent in Buffalo’s D than has been acknowledged. Both units are led by two of today’s best in Robert Hope (Colorado) & Steve Priolo (Buffalo) and successfully supported by seldom talked about seasoned vets, although the Mammoth skew a bit younger. Advantage: Buffalo Bandits.

Offense

If we’re looking at the regular season, well, it ain’t even close with Buffalo’s versatile forward cast more than 50 goals greater (247) than the Mammoth’s offensive production (196). Plus, with no Lee, how can Colorado’s offense compete with the big, bad Bandits, right? Well, no team is averaging more goals in the playoffs than the Lee-less Mammoth (13.75 vs. Buffalo’s 12.67) and the team has received MVP-level stuff from Eli McLaughlin (also this year’s most clutch scorer), and when they win, the best secondary-scoring punch of this year’s playoffs. With that said… Advantage: Buffalo Bandits, who just have too many weapons to silence… Dhane Smith, Josh Byrne, Chase Fraser, Connor Fields, Chris Cloutier, Kyle Buchanan, Tehoka Nanticoke.

Transition

The series will feature arguably the playoffs’ top performing two-way threats in Ian MacKay (Buffalo) & Joey Cupido (Colorado), both of whom have been outstanding defensively, pressing, and scoring timely goals in transition (AKA: massive momentum shifters). Virtually all of Buffalo’s forwards have also put in quality minutes back peddling to counter the opposition’s press, sometimes going up again on the same shift. Advantage: Colorado Mammoth, their two-way talents showing last Saturday in San Diego just what a mammoth difference maker they’re always capable of being. It’s one of this squad’s strongest positional suits.

Ian MacKay, Buffalo Bandits (Photo: Ben Green)

Power Play

The Mammoth power-play efficiency has nearly doubled (66.7%) from their rough numbers during the regular season (34.4%), and is even slightly higher than what the Bandits have done (60.0%) in the very few man-up looks they’ve seen during the playoffs (5 in 3 games). Advantage: Come on, clearly it’s the Buffalo Bandits, who were second during the regular season in efficiency (52.8%) and PPGF (38), plus that offense is often so precisely potent.

Penalty Kill

As good as Buffalo’s PP has been most of the year, their PK has been even better, during both the regular season (65.6%) and playoffs (75.0%). In fact, they’ve given up just one PPG goal in their three playoff games. The Mammoth’s PK was no slouch during the season (57.3%), but have seemingly struggled during their four playoff performances (25.0%). They got away with it against the Seals, who were equally as inefficient (27.3%), but that likely won’t happen here. Advantage: Buffalo Bandits.

Robert Hope, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Jack Dempsey)

Faceoffs

When these teams met during the regular season, Max Adler won the face-off battle for Buffalo (the Mammoth won the match though, 15-14), but it wasn’t against the player he’s probably gonna see this series: Tim Edwards. Edwards, who missed most of the season due to injury, has had some of the sharpest at-centre stats during the postseason (62.3 FOW%), but has also not faced the quality of draw takers the East loaded up with this year. It’s difficult to compare their dot digits during the playoffs since Adler’s FOW% (32.9%) is down due to tangling with Joe Nardella and then TD Ierlan, but still… Advantage: Colorado Mammoth.

Coaching

Another tough one. Hall-of-Fame players that have transitioned into head coaching roles at the highest level, and although not always the case (Hi, Wayne Gretzky), they’re good at that too. John Tavares has rerouted a Bandits team that looked like they may have peaked too early, and Pat Coyle continues to guide a slightly younger squad past adversity critics keep claiming will sink them. Advantage: Colorado Mammoth, whose super secret weapon might be offensive/assistant coach, Jason Bishop. Under his guidance, the team added a whole extra goal onto their game during the regular season, plus plenty more during the playoffs.

Justin Robinson, Nick Weiss and Connor Fields (Photo: Ben Green)

Intangibles

Well, Buffalo get as many as two in Banditland, arguably the most hostile home floor in professional lacrosse. Even though their regular-season-road record kinda stunk (3-6), the Mammoth have yet to lose away from Ball Arena during the playoffs (3-0). Colorado also comes in as clear underdogs, many still not believing they can win it all without Lee. All season, once Colorado seemed like they’d been counted out, they’d return more impressive than ever. It’s a significant motivator for the Mammoth one would think. Neither team has won the NLL Cup (still the Champion’s Cup then) in over a decade either, Colorado in 2006 (against the Bandits) and Buffalo two years later. Advantage: Colorado Mammoth, who’ve continued to get better after virtually everyone had them eliminated with Lee limping.

Experience

Having Cup winners on your roster is usually pretty critical to post-season success, yet neither team is too loaded with former champions, well, past their Cup-collecting coaches. Colorado’s Scott Carnegie won a Cup with Calgary, John Lintz was with the Edmonton and then Saskatchewan Rush when they won in 2015 and 2016, and Tyler Carlson was a backup stopper with the Rush for three Cups. Vinc won three with the Rochester Knighthawks before becoming a Bandit, and Ethan O’Connor captured a Cup with the Georgia Swarm. Advantage: Buffalo Bandits, who may have collected a few fewer than the Mammoth, but Vinc’s three were all done as a leading man, just like Buffalo’s bench boss.

John Lintz, Colorado Mammoth (Photo: Jack Dempsey)

Recent Results

We’ve mentioned it numerous times already, but history, especially during the modern era, tells us that teams that do well during the last month of their regular season are often also Cup winners. While the Bandits are clearly back on track, their final month of the regular season wasn’t great (1-3). Advantage: Colorado Mammoth, who went 3-2 in their final four weeks, which included that 15-14 win over the Bandits at Ball Arena. Plus, even in defeat, they’ve beed red hot during this post-season run. If Buffalo does win the series, they’d be the first team since the Rock in 2011 to win the Cup with a losing record in the final month before the playoffs. The only other side since 2005 to do it? Vinc and the Knighthawks a season earlier.

Overall Advantage

Buffalo Bandits (6): goaltending, defense, offense, power play, penalty kill and experience

Colorado Mammoth (5): transition, faceoffs, coaching, intangibles and recent results

Prediction

It’ll be closer than most think, but the Buffalo Bandits still seem like this year’s most likely NLL Cup winners. With the way their playoffs have gone so far, however, the Mammoth will likely love to hear that popular prognostication.